Home / Schedule Luck

Schedule Luck

The commissioner's own method, formalized: how much of every GFFL title race actually came down to the schedule.

Fantasy weekly scores don't depend on who you happen to be playing that week — your points are your points regardless of opponent. That means we can hold every owner's actual score fixed for a whole season and just redraw the schedule: 10,000 independent random schedules per season, each one a full replay — regular season standings recomputed from the new pairings (wins, tiebreak by total points, same as ESPN), then the actual era-correct playoff bracket reseeded and replayed using owners' real points from those playoff weeks. The share of those 10,000 replays that end in a given owner lifting the trophy is that owner's title odds for the season. Everything below comes from that engine.

One honest wrinkle: 2008–2010 ran a 10-team league with an 8-team playoff, so only two teams missed the postseason — in that era, a title mostly came down to what happened in the three playoff weeks themselves, and the regular-season schedule had comparatively little leverage over the outcome. We don't smooth that over; it's just how those three seasons' numbers read.

Career: Expected vs. Actual Titles

Expected titles is the sum of an owner's simulated title odds across every season they've played — their "should-have" title count if the dice landed exactly as often as the odds implied. Title luck is actual titles minus that number. Sorted by the size of the gap, either direction.

Owner	Seasons	Expected Titles	Actual Titles	Title Luck
Vinny	16	0.72	2	+1.28
Mike	13	0.63	0	-0.63
Marco	18	0.58	0	-0.58
Randy	9	1.47	2	+0.53
Vose	9	0.47	1	+0.53
Worm	5	0.43	0	-0.43
Jack	18	2.34	2	-0.34
Pat	18	1.33	1	-0.33
Ian	6	0.26	0	-0.26
Pookie	10	0.25	0	-0.25
Brent	8	0.76	1	+0.24
Chester	15	0.76	1	+0.24
Joe	18	2.79	3	+0.21
Matt	18	2.18	2	-0.18
Nate	11	1.12	1	-0.12
Shaun	18	1.90	2	+0.10

Robbed & Bandit

The two extremes of simulated title odds: the best seasons that didn't end in a ring, and the least-deserving champions by the numbers.

Highest Title Equity, Denied

Seasons with the best simulated title odds that didn't end in a ring — the schedule-luck engine's version of "robbed."

#	Owner	Title Odds	Season	Actual Finish
1	Joe	56.0%	2009	Runner-Up
2	Mike	51.1%	2014	Runner-Up
3	Shaun	39.8%	2023	Runner-Up
4	Joe	38.9%	2012	Playoffs (eliminated)
5	Marco	32.0%	2021	Playoffs (eliminated)
6	Pat	31.9%	2010	Playoffs (eliminated)
7	Brent	30.4%	2014	Playoffs (eliminated)
8	Joe	29.8%	2008	Runner-Up
9	Matt	29.2%	2013	Playoffs (eliminated)
10	Randy	27.7%	2021	Playoffs (eliminated)

Luckiest Champion

Champions who won it all with the lowest simulated title odds — the field that got away with one.

#	Owner	Title Odds	Season	Actual Finish
1	Joe	4.0%	2014	Champion
2	Brent	18.1%	2013	Champion
3	Joe	19.1%	2021	Champion
4	Vinny	19.3%	2012	Champion
5	Chester	24.6%	2022	Champion
6	Shaun	31.0%	2009	Champion
7	Vose	34.0%	2008	Champion
8	Vinny	41.5%	2010	Champion
9	Randy	47.7%	2024	Champion
10	Jack	49.9%	2025	Champion

Season by Season

Every season's full odds table. Worst-record odds is the chance of finishing with the league's worst regular-season record (points-for tiebreak) — we call it that instead of "Mundane Randy odds" on this table because it diverges slightly from the real consolation-bracket rule, which isn't part of the simulation.

202512 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
JackChampion	49.9%	98.3%	<0.1%	9.9	10
Matt	26.9%	95.2%	<0.1%	9.2	9
Shaun	22.8%	72.5%	<0.1%	7.5	7
Marco	0.4%	78.7%	0.2%	8.1	10
Randy	<0.1%	3.4%	37.2%	4.3	9
Chester	0.0%	64.3%	0.8%	7.2	6
Joe	0.0%	25.2%	0.6%	6.5	5
Nate	0.0%	12.9%	3.8%	5.8	6
Pat	0.0%	2.3%	37.3%	4.5	3
Pookie	0.0%	95.4%	<0.1%	9.2	9
Vinny	0.0%	47.9%	1.1%	7.0	6
WormMundane Randy	0.0%	3.9%	18.9%	4.7	4

202412 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
RandyChampion	47.7%	99.3%	0.0%	10.2	8
Worm	20.8%	97.3%	<0.1%	9.3	10
Chester	18.1%	98.0%	0.0%	9.7	8
Jack	10.6%	59.0%	0.9%	7.0	5
Marco	2.4%	8.1%	9.2%	5.3	4
Vinny	0.3%	71.8%	0.3%	7.6	10
Pat	<0.1%	81.2%	0.2%	7.8	8
Joe	0.0%	0.6%	52.3%	3.8	6
Matt	0.0%	24.8%	2.3%	6.2	6
NateMundane Randy	0.0%	8.0%	7.2%	5.3	4
Pookie	0.0%	46.4%	2.3%	6.8	10
Shaun	0.0%	5.5%	25.3%	5.0	5

202312 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
MattChampion	60.0%	95.4%	0.0%	9.5	10
Shaun	39.8%	98.9%	0.0%	9.9	9
Joe	0.2%	96.3%	<0.1%	9.1	8
Pat	<0.1%	50.2%	0.6%	6.9	9
Randy	<0.1%	19.8%	3.3%	6.0	6
Chester	<0.1%	76.8%	0.2%	7.7	8
NateMundane Randy	<0.1%	9.6%	3.1%	5.7	6
Jack	0.0%	64.1%	0.5%	7.3	6
Marco	0.0%	4.6%	11.7%	4.9	6
Pookie	0.0%	0.3%	78.3%	3.3	2
Vinny	0.0%	44.5%	1.1%	7.0	9
Worm	0.0%	39.6%	1.3%	6.6	5

202212 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
Pat	26.2%	96.6%	<0.1%	9.5	10
ChesterChampion	24.6%	50.0%	0.7%	7.0	7
Worm	22.2%	58.4%	0.9%	6.9	9
Jack	11.6%	47.9%	2.0%	6.6	7
Nate	9.3%	25.7%	4.0%	6.3	5
Pookie	5.1%	99.7%	0.0%	10.4	11
Vinny	1.0%	9.7%	12.7%	5.3	5
Matt	<0.1%	88.9%	0.2%	8.5	11
Joe	0.0%	2.9%	39.4%	4.6	5
Marco	0.0%	47.5%	0.8%	7.1	5
Randy	0.0%	2.9%	38.9%	4.3	3
ShaunMundane Randy	0.0%	69.8%	0.4%	7.6	6

202112 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
Marco	32.0%	91.5%	<0.1%	8.7	11
Randy	27.7%	90.4%	0.0%	8.5	7
JoeChampion	19.1%	47.5%	1.4%	7.1	10
Jack	9.4%	97.2%	0.0%	9.5	9
Shaun	6.6%	36.7%	2.2%	6.5	6
Chester	4.3%	78.3%	0.1%	8.2	8
Nate	0.7%	87.9%	<0.1%	8.4	6
Worm	0.1%	44.7%	0.9%	7.3	6
Matt	0.0%	0.8%	52.7%	4.1	6
Pat	0.0%	14.9%	1.9%	6.1	5
PookieMundane Randy	0.0%	5.9%	15.2%	5.0	6
Vinny	0.0%	3.9%	25.5%	4.6	4

202012 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
ShaunChampion	60.2%	75.2%	0.4%	6.9	7
Marco	14.0%	88.8%	0.4%	7.9	9
Nate	7.1%	51.8%	4.6%	6.3	6
Randy	7.0%	98.9%	0.0%	9.0	10
Matt	4.2%	36.7%	3.8%	6.3	8
Pat	2.5%	31.7%	8.0%	6.1	8
Jack	2.4%	8.9%	44.4%	4.7	4
Vinny	1.9%	59.0%	1.8%	6.7	5
JoeMundane Randy	0.5%	57.2%	1.5%	6.6	6
Pookie	0.2%	42.0%	6.3%	6.3	4
Chester	0.0%	42.9%	3.0%	6.3	4
Mike	0.0%	7.0%	25.9%	4.9	7

201912 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
MattChampion	67.8%	99.8%	0.0%	9.7	9
Pookie	19.9%	84.9%	<0.1%	7.7	9
Joe	7.4%	35.3%	1.3%	6.3	5
Jack	2.7%	86.3%	<0.1%	7.9	6
Vinny	1.7%	54.2%	0.4%	6.8	6
Pat	0.3%	62.0%	0.2%	6.9	9
Shaun	0.2%	22.1%	1.2%	5.9	7
ChesterMundane Randy	0.0%	38.8%	0.9%	6.2	6
Marco	0.0%	0.1%	76.6%	2.8	3
Mike	0.0%	58.8%	0.3%	6.7	9
Nate	0.0%	1.9%	18.8%	3.9	4
Randy	0.0%	55.8%	0.2%	7.0	5

201812 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
NateChampion	94.0%	99.6%	0.0%	9.9	10
Matt	5.4%	96.8%	0.0%	8.9	10
Jack	0.4%	72.3%	<0.1%	7.5	6
Randy	0.1%	3.5%	5.6%	4.6	4
Pat	<0.1%	45.8%	0.4%	6.7	6
Chester	<0.1%	69.9%	0.2%	7.3	10
Pookie	<0.1%	20.3%	1.6%	5.7	5
Joe	0.0%	89.0%	<0.1%	7.7	7
Marco	0.0%	0.9%	32.6%	3.4	3
Mike	0.0%	0.6%	52.4%	3.2	2
Shaun	0.0%	96.2%	0.0%	8.6	10
VinnyMundane Randy	0.0%	5.4%	7.2%	4.6	5

201712 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
RandyChampion	64.3%	98.9%	0.0%	9.5	7
Joe	22.7%	99.0%	0.0%	9.6	11
Chester	12.6%	100.0%	0.0%	10.8	10
Pat	0.3%	53.8%	0.1%	6.4	7
Brent	0.0%	0.1%	44.8%	2.7	3
Jack	0.0%	82.2%	<0.1%	7.5	7
Marco	0.0%	17.2%	1.6%	5.4	7
Matt	0.0%	35.7%	0.3%	6.2	5
Mike	0.0%	63.5%	0.3%	6.6	7
Nate	0.0%	1.2%	9.4%	3.7	4
Shaun	0.0%	47.6%	0.4%	6.4	5
VinnyMundane Randy	0.0%	0.7%	43.0%	3.1	5

201612 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
JackChampion	93.3%	99.8%	0.0%	10.2	9
Shaun	3.5%	96.7%	<0.1%	8.3	8
Chester	1.8%	61.7%	0.8%	6.8	8
Pat	0.9%	50.2%	1.0%	6.3	5
Nate	0.3%	98.0%	0.0%	8.9	9
Vose	0.2%	31.1%	3.1%	5.8	6
Marco	<0.1%	1.1%	72.9%	3.2	4
Brent	0.0%	19.9%	4.9%	5.4	5
Joe	0.0%	15.5%	8.3%	5.3	6
MattMundane Randy	0.0%	17.5%	4.6%	5.5	6
Mike	0.0%	40.9%	3.2%	5.7	5
Vinny	0.0%	67.5%	1.2%	6.6	7

201512 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
JoeChampion	75.3%	99.2%	0.0%	9.3	9
Mike	10.8%	38.7%	2.5%	5.9	6
Vose	8.5%	100.0%	0.0%	10.7	12
Matt	3.3%	89.3%	<0.1%	7.7	5
Vinny	1.4%	92.6%	<0.1%	8.1	9
Jack	0.3%	14.8%	2.2%	5.3	5
Nate	0.3%	94.4%	0.0%	8.1	9
Shaun	0.2%	6.3%	12.2%	4.5	4
Chester	<0.1%	3.8%	24.2%	4.1	5
BrentMundane Randy	0.0%	2.1%	47.2%	3.6	3
Marco	0.0%	12.8%	9.1%	4.8	7
Pat	0.0%	45.9%	2.6%	5.9	4

201412 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
Mike	51.1%	98.4%	0.0%	9.4	8
Brent	30.4%	42.9%	0.5%	6.7	8
Matt	8.5%	61.7%	0.6%	7.1	6
JoeChampion	4.0%	23.3%	0.9%	6.1	9
Vinny	3.1%	34.3%	0.2%	6.4	7
Shaun	1.7%	91.9%	<0.1%	8.3	7
Marco	0.7%	79.6%	<0.1%	7.5	6
Pat	0.4%	69.6%	0.1%	7.2	8
Vose	<0.1%	<0.1%	40.3%	3.2	4
Chester	0.0%	45.6%	0.4%	6.5	5
IanMundane Randy	0.0%	1.1%	56.3%	3.3	3
Jack	0.0%	51.5%	0.6%	6.4	7

201312 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
Matt	29.2%	85.5%	0.5%	8.0	8
Joe	25.0%	54.0%	3.5%	6.3	10
BrentChampion	18.1%	59.7%	2.5%	6.7	7
Chester	13.4%	54.6%	2.1%	6.7	6
Jack	8.0%	63.2%	2.9%	6.9	6
Vose	4.4%	92.3%	0.3%	8.4	10
Marco	1.4%	72.5%	1.1%	7.1	9
Ian	0.3%	6.9%	44.8%	4.6	4
Pat	0.2%	12.0%	23.0%	5.1	4
Shaun	0.1%	16.6%	10.9%	5.5	3
Mike	0.0%	56.7%	2.1%	6.7	6
VinnyMundane Randy	0.0%	25.9%	6.4%	5.9	5

201212 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
Joe	38.9%	92.9%	1.0%	8.0	8
Jack	26.8%	65.3%	6.2%	6.3	6
VinnyChampion	19.3%	93.0%	0.5%	7.3	8
Ian	7.9%	49.1%	14.4%	5.9	6
Marco	6.2%	71.2%	4.9%	6.4	5
PatMundane Randy	0.4%	47.0%	15.2%	5.9	6
Matt	0.3%	30.1%	22.2%	5.5	4
Brent	0.1%	88.9%	1.4%	7.2	7
Mike	<0.1%	60.0%	8.5%	6.2	8
Chester	0.0%	80.8%	3.1%	6.8	8
Shaun	0.0%	86.0%	1.5%	7.0	7
Vose	0.0%	35.8%	21.2%	5.6	5

201112 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
PatChampion	68.0%	96.7%	0.2%	8.0	9
Brent	19.9%	92.0%	0.7%	7.2	8
Ian	3.9%	88.9%	0.8%	6.8	7
Shaun	3.7%	30.7%	17.9%	5.1	5
Vinny	1.9%	63.6%	5.4%	5.8	5
Chester	1.5%	31.7%	12.7%	5.1	2
Mike	0.7%	99.7%	<0.1%	9.5	10
Matt	0.3%	94.7%	0.4%	7.8	8
MarcoMundane Randy	<0.1%	31.1%	18.4%	4.9	5
Jack	0.0%	52.9%	7.2%	5.5	6
Joe	0.0%	23.3%	36.2%	4.7	6
Vose	0.0%	94.8%	0.2%	7.6	7

201010 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
VinnyChampion	41.5%	75.5%	7.6%	5.3	6
Pat	31.9%	99.7%	<0.1%	8.9	9
Jack	18.2%	99.5%	<0.1%	8.0	9
Brent	7.0%	99.1%	0.1%	7.7	6
Marco	1.3%	99.1%	0.1%	7.5	7
MikeMundane Randy	<0.1%	76.2%	4.4%	5.4	4
Matt	<0.1%	8.8%	74.7%	3.3	4
Joe	0.0%	64.8%	7.6%	5.4	6
Shaun	0.0%	98.2%	0.3%	7.5	8
Vose	0.0%	79.1%	5.1%	5.9	6

200910 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
Joe	56.0%	99.4%	0.1%	8.2	9
ShaunChampion	31.0%	99.7%	<0.1%	8.9	8
Matt	12.3%	97.4%	0.7%	7.3	6
Mike	0.5%	91.8%	2.2%	6.2	7
Jack	0.1%	90.0%	3.8%	6.6	6
Ian	0.0%	36.1%	33.0%	4.6	3
Marco	0.0%	83.4%	6.3%	6.1	6
Pat	0.0%	91.4%	2.4%	6.5	8
PookieMundane Randy	0.0%	36.0%	41.3%	4.7	6
Vose	0.0%	74.8%	10.2%	5.8	6

200810 owners · click to expand

Owner	Title Odds	Playoff Odds	Worst-Record Odds	Mean Wins	Actual Wins
VoseChampion	34.0%	85.8%	1.2%	5.0	6
Joe	29.8%	99.8%	0.0%	8.2	7
Shaun	20.7%	98.2%	<0.1%	6.9	10
Ian	14.1%	76.4%	1.6%	4.6	6
Pat	1.3%	97.1%	0.2%	6.3	4
Jack	0.1%	100.0%	0.0%	10.0	11
MarcoMundane Randy	<0.1%	40.4%	9.7%	3.9	4
Matt	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	9.8	9
Mike	0.0%	99.9%	0.0%	8.6	8
Pookie	0.0%	2.4%	87.2%	1.7	0