Seed	Owner	Team	Record	PF	PA	Finish	PF+	Luck	Alt. Title Rate
1	Jack	The Academy	10-4	1802.16	1549.70	Champion	111.7	0.1	48.6%
2	Marco	Fernie Williams	10-4	1637.42	1511.16	Playoffs (eliminated)	101.5	1.9	0.4%
3	Matt	Stupid	9-5	1798.06	1560.48	Runner-Up	111.5	-0.2	28.2%
4	Pookie	Amon-Drugs	9-5	1741.14	1637.92	Playoffs (eliminated)	107.9	-0.3	0.0%
5	Randy	Syndrome of a Downs	9-5	1464.18	1568.84	Playoffs (eliminated)	90.8	4.7	<0.1%
6	Shaun	ASS CLOWNS	7-7	1649.40	1604.60	Playoffs (eliminated)	102.2	-0.5	22.7%
7	Chester	Team Lomanto	6-8	1652.16	1685.56	Missed Playoffs	102.4	-1.2	<0.1%
8	Vinny	THE Tight End University	6-8	1612.32	1654.86	Missed Playoffs	99.9	-1.0	0.0%
9	Nate	I'm a little LAD!	6-8	1543.02	1636.52	Missed Playoffs	95.6	0.2	0.0%
10	Joe	Naber's Peeping at my Chuba	5-9	1565.12	1778.94	Missed Playoffs	97.0	-1.5	0.0%
11	Worm	Pythons FT	4-10	1465.74	1552.10	Mundane Randy	90.9	-0.7	0.0%
12	Pat	Rock Anich Anus Stretchers	3-11	1428.38	1618.42	Missed Playoffs	88.5	-1.5	0.0%

Advanced standings

Owner	All-Play	xWins	Luck	Lineup Eff	Boom	Bust	Expected Seed	Seed Luck	Vs. Proj.
Jack	70.8%	9.9	0.1	86.9%	21.4%	0.0%	2.1	1.1	-67.5
Marco	57.8%	8.1	1.9	83.4%	7.1%	7.1%	4.9	2.9	-192.9
Matt	65.6%	9.2	-0.2	86.1%	35.7%	7.1%	2.8	-0.2	+46.0
Pookie	66.2%	9.3	-0.3	88.4%	21.4%	7.1%	3.0	-1.0	-23.3
Randy	30.5%	4.3	4.7	82.9%	7.1%	21.4%	10.6	5.6	-188.6
Shaun	53.9%	7.5	-0.5	87.7%	28.6%	14.3%	5.4	-0.6	-43.9
Chester	51.3%	7.2	-1.2	87.9%	14.3%	0.0%	5.8	-1.2	+18.9
Vinny	50.0%	7.0	-1.0	92.5%	14.3%	21.4%	6.5	-1.5	-52.3
Nate	41.6%	5.8	0.2	84.6%	7.1%	14.3%	8.6	-0.4	-103.9
Joe	46.1%	6.5	-1.5	90.5%	28.6%	35.7%	7.6	-2.4	-46.7
Worm	33.8%	4.7	-0.7	89.1%	14.3%	28.6%	10.1	-0.9	-211.0
Pat	32.5%	4.5	-1.5	85.0%	7.1%	35.7%	10.6	-1.4	-175.3

Where the wins came from

Owner	Wins +/-	Draft	Waivers	Trades	Lineup	Luck	Other
Jack	+3.0	+1.7	+0.2	+0.7	-0.4	+0.1	+0.7
Marco	+3.0	+1.7	-0.3	-0.1	-1.0	+1.9	+0.8
Matt	+2.0	+1.8	+1.0	-0.1	-0.6	-0.2	+0.1
Pookie	+2.0	+1.2	+0.2	-0.1	+0.1	-0.3	+0.8
Randy	+2.0	-1.2	+0.2	-0.1	-0.7	+4.7	-0.9
Shaun	+0.0	-0.9	+1.1	+0.1	+0.1	-0.5	+0.2
Chester	-1.0	+0.3	+0.0	-0.1	+0.2	-1.2	-0.2
Nate	-1.0	-0.6	+0.3	-0.1	-0.5	+0.2	-0.3
Vinny	-1.0	+0.1	-1.3	-0.1	+1.3	-1.0	+0.1
Joe	-2.0	+0.3	-1.0	-0.1	+0.9	-1.5	-0.7
Worm	-3.0	-2.1	-0.3	-0.1	+0.7	-0.7	-0.5
Pat	-4.0	-2.1	-0.2	+0.1	-0.1	-1.5	-0.2

In wins. See Where Wins Come From.

Biggest Upsets

Wk	Winner	Pregame	Score	Loser
10	Nate	22%	134.00–130.04	Jack
9	Matt	25%	131.30–116.62	Jack
14	Joe	26%	131.54–126.04	Matt
6	Shaun	35%	120.82–118.60	Worm
12	Nate	35%	151.14–138.28	Pookie

Playoffs

Quarterfinals

Bye

Bye

Semifinals

Final

Losers Bracket

Seeds 7–12 play a reverse-elimination bracket: losing advances a team toward the Consolation Final, whose loser becomes Mundane Randy.

Round 1

8Vinny114.20

9Nate78.92advances ↓

7Chester117.32

10Joe104.16advances ↓

11Worm113.62

12Pat156.30

Placement game, no bracket meaning

Round 2

9Nate110.14

12Pat83.90advances ↓

10Joe126.76

11Worm113.20advances ↓

7Chester121.08

8Vinny86.44

Filler, already escaped

Consolation Final

Filler, already escaped

8Vinny92.54

10Joe57.94

Filler, already escaped

Placement Games

Games among eliminated playoff teams determine third through sixth place.

Round 2

Final

The Race

Odds after every week, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Seed	Owner	Pre	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	Rd 1	Semis	Finish
1	Jack	50	68	78	85	91	95	92	98	99	99	98	100	100	100	100	100	100	8	13	16	18	19	21	18	23	25	21	20	23	27	29	30	28	51	8	4	3	2	1	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	Champion
2	Marco	50	64	52	68	77	84	92	97	99	>99	>99	100	100	100	100	100	100	8	12	8	12	13	14	17	20	22	23	20	21	16	20	21	20	0	9	5	7	4	3	2	1	<1	<1	0	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
3	Matt	50	39	55	72	87	90	94	88	87	94	98	100	100	100	100	100	100	9	6	9	14	20	19	21	15	14	16	19	21	24	20	17	28	49	8	10	6	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	Runner-Up
4	Pookie	50	46	56	42	54	64	46	56	81	92	96	>99	100	100	100	100	100	8	8	10	6	8	9	6	7	12	15	16	16	15	15	15	24	0	8	9	6	8	6	4	7	5	2	1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
5	Randy	50	38	26	30	37	24	26	16	32	45	25	51	82	100	100	100	100	8	6	4	3	4	2	3	1	3	4	2	4	5	6	6	0	0	9	10	14	12	11	13	12	15	11	7	10	7	3	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
6	Shaun	50	37	30	37	25	13	18	33	55	35	52	34	17	38	100	100	100	8	6	4	5	3	1	2	3	6	4	6	3	2	4	11	0	0	8	11	12	10	12	15	13	8	5	7	4	7	8	6	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
7	Chester	50	61	65	53	47	32	52	68	51	40	52	40	28	49	0	0	0	9	11	10	7	6	3	7	9	6	5	7	5	3	6	0	0	0	8	6	6	7	8	10	6	3	5	6	4	6	6	5	9	0	0	Missed Playoffs
8	Vinny	50	59	53	67	58	56	68	59	44	55	61	46	18	1	0	0	0	9	11	9	12	9	10	11	10	7	8	9	5	2	<1	0	0	0	9	6	7	4	6	4	3	4	5	3	3	5	8	10	10	0	0	Missed Playoffs
9	Nate	50	64	69	56	44	55	38	28	16	5	7	24	54	11	0	0	0	8	11	11	8	5	7	4	3	1	<1	1	2	5	1	0	0	0	8	5	4	6	9	6	9	10	13	16	13	9	6	10	12	23	0	Missed Playoffs
10	Joe	49	59	75	67	51	71	64	55	32	34	11	6	<1	0	0	0	0	8	10	14	12	7	11	10	8	4	4	1	1	<1	0	0	0	0	8	6	3	4	7	3	4	4	7	6	10	11	12	13	12	22	0	Missed Playoffs
11	Worm	50	38	23	14	25	16	8	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	6	3	2	3	2	1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	11	15	17	13	14	15	19	19	21	24	23	26	27	28	27	48	Mundane Randy
12	Pat	50	27	18	8	5	2	<1	1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	3	2	1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	15	18	23	24	27	30	30	31	33	32	32	31	29	30	28	52	Missed Playoffs

Each week’s odds come from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, with team strength set by scoring to date and weighted toward the league average until the sample grows. Backtested on every week since 2013: teams given 70–80% made the playoffs 74% of the time.

Week-by-Week Results

Wk	Jack	Marco	Matt	Pookie	Randy	Shaun	Chester	Vinny	Nate	Joe	Worm	Pat
1	W144.42	W124.02	L99.12	L123.14	L90.78	L88.28	W121.22	W112.16	W125.52	W112.28	L92.16	L48.52
2	W136.88	L105.60	W145.08	W122.34	L105.00	L120.14	W98.08	L120.30	W106.00	W150.54	L84.32	L102.44
3	W118.42	W155.36	W154.62	L105.92	W104.52	W122.24	L100.76	W144.62	L94.62	L114.64	L102.72	L73.78
4	W133.68	W120.10	W164.68	W133.14	W110.02	L106.00	L125.60	L118.88	L112.18	L92.76	W161.76	L121.24
5	W143.14	W121.60	W115.82	W131.28	L110.62	L95.00	L105.02	L164.76	W130.34	W166.28	L111.18	L92.28
6	L98.08	W130.00	W114.78	L90.66	W91.34	W120.82	W166.98	W129.66	L87.04	L138.04	L118.60	L91.20
7	W160.16	W140.32	L92.78	W121.06	L91.08	W160.44	W128.94	L136.50	L121.34	L130.46	L85.56	W106.82
8	W124.10	W113.72	L145.90	W159.28	W148.24	W148.86	L92.56	L107.08	L92.18	L58.38	W98.12	L84.22
9	L116.62	W131.40	W131.30	W149.82	W128.34	L104.10	L143.70	W141.36	L85.78	W93.60	L115.52	L108.94
10	L130.04	L104.62	W131.80	W108.30	L92.50	W149.92	W138.90	W93.94	W134.00	L89.12	L104.74	L134.68
11	W140.66	W111.76	W132.82	W110.50	W95.54	L72.56	L91.24	L70.24	W118.74	L92.42	L130.98	L94.80
12	W130.86	L95.02	W129.66	L138.28	W104.26	L110.96	L118.32	L60.32	W151.14	L109.46	W78.82	W150.66
13	W114.94	W124.66	L113.66	L123.44	W89.98	W132.52	W116.94	L106.64	L100.34	L85.60	L78.42	W121.80
14	L110.16	L59.24	L126.04	W123.98	W101.96	W117.56	L103.90	W105.86	L83.80	W131.54	W102.84	L97.00
15	BYE	BYE	W143.92	W201.78	L93.40	L138.30	W117.32	W114.20	L78.92	L104.16	L113.62	W156.30
16	W147.66	L138.80	W172.26	L113.78	L123.20	W159.46	W121.08	L86.44	W110.14	W126.76	L113.20	L83.90
17	W147.10	W118.22	L124.90	L110.58	W134.94	L132.12	W116.86	W92.54	L86.66	L57.94	L63.58	W96.00