Seed	Owner	Team	Record	PF	PA	Finish	PF+	Luck	Alt. Title Rate
1	Worm	Smushin Ain't Easy	10-4	1763.10	1611.96	Playoffs (eliminated)	106.4	0.7	20.1%
2	Vinny	THE Tight End University	10-4	1688.40	1569.56	Playoffs (eliminated)	101.9	2.4	0.3%
3	Pookie	Poo	10-4	1621.56	1540.12	Playoffs (eliminated)	97.9	3.2	0.0%
4	Randy	Jumblefunk Flapstick	8-6	2001.94	1727.34	Champion	120.9	-2.2	48.5%
5	Chester	Team Lomanto	8-6	1867.68	1607.78	Playoffs (eliminated)	112.8	-1.7	18.1%
6	Pat	Rock Anich Anus Stretchers	8-6	1694.82	1695.10	Runner-Up	102.3	0.2	<0.1%
7	Matt	Downs	6-8	1618.96	1772.98	Missed Playoffs	97.7	-0.2	0.0%
8	Joe	Purdy Moss-y Pewbs on my Chubb	6-8	1487.34	1549.96	Missed Playoffs	89.8	2.2	0.0%
9	Jack	The Academy	5-9	1692.08	1778.52	Missed Playoffs	102.2	-2.0	11.0%
10	Shaun	Palmdale Tall Cans	5-9	1425.68	1630.48	Missed Playoffs	86.1	0.0	0.0%
11	Nate	Seattle Sea-Pieces of Poop	4-10	1517.98	1717.86	Mundane Randy	91.6	-1.3	0.0%
12	Marco	Fort Plain Dwayne	4-10	1496.06	1673.94	Missed Playoffs	90.3	-1.3	2.0%

Advanced standings

Owner	All-Play	xWins	Luck	Lineup Eff	Boom	Bust	Expected Seed	Seed Luck	Vs. Proj.
Worm	66.2%	9.3	0.7	82.6%	28.6%	7.1%	3.0	2.0	-28.5
Vinny	54.5%	7.6	2.4	89.9%	14.3%	21.4%	5.4	3.4	+25.5
Pookie	48.7%	6.8	3.2	85.9%	0.0%	0.0%	6.7	3.7	-5.2
Randy	72.7%	10.2	-2.2	96.1%	35.7%	0.0%	1.9	-2.1	+236.7
Chester	69.5%	9.7	-1.7	91.1%	28.6%	0.0%	2.5	-2.5	+129.2
Pat	55.8%	7.8	0.2	83.9%	28.6%	14.3%	4.9	-1.1	+21.6
Matt	44.2%	6.2	-0.2	88.3%	14.3%	14.3%	7.7	0.7	-110.0
Joe	27.3%	3.8	2.2	83.7%	7.1%	35.7%	11.2	3.2	-172.7
Jack	50.0%	7.0	-2.0	89.2%	21.4%	7.1%	6.1	-2.9	-83.0
Shaun	35.7%	5.0	0.0	84.6%	0.0%	35.7%	10.1	0.1	-24.4
Nate	37.7%	5.3	-1.3	86.9%	7.1%	28.6%	9.2	-1.8	-107.0
Marco	37.7%	5.3	-1.3	86.8%	0.0%	28.6%	9.4	-2.6	-90.7

Where the wins came from

Owner	Wins +/-	Draft	Waivers	Trades	Lineup	Luck	Other
Pookie	+3.0	+0.3	-0.4	+0.1	-0.4	+3.2	+0.2
Vinny	+3.0	+0.8	-0.8	-0.1	+0.6	+2.4	+0.3
Worm	+3.0	+2.8	+0.2	-0.1	-1.6	+0.7	+1.0
Chester	+1.0	+2.8	-0.8	-0.1	+0.6	-1.7	+0.2
Pat	+1.0	+1.2	+0.4	-0.1	-1.0	+0.2	+0.3
Randy	+1.0	+2.3	+0.0	-0.2	+1.8	-2.2	-0.8
Joe	-1.0	-1.1	-0.0	-0.1	-0.6	+2.2	-1.4
Matt	-1.0	-2.4	+1.2	+0.5	+0.3	-0.2	-0.4
Jack	-2.0	+0.0	+0.1	-0.1	+0.4	-2.0	-0.4
Shaun	-2.0	-3.4	+0.5	+0.5	-0.3	+0.0	+0.7
Marco	-3.0	-2.6	+0.6	-0.1	+0.1	-1.3	+0.2
Nate	-3.0	-0.8	-0.9	-0.1	+0.1	-1.3	-0.0

In wins. See Where Wins Come From.

Biggest Upsets

Wk	Winner	Pregame	Score	Loser
12	Randy	26%	133.90–103.72	Worm
13	Shaun	26%	136.82–113.06	Randy
7	Shaun	28%	113.82–89.04	Chester
14	Marco	28%	116.32–114.76	Chester
5	Pookie	29%	120.04–110.22	Jack

Playoffs

Quarterfinals

Bye

Bye

Semifinals

Final

Losers Bracket

Seeds 7–12 play a reverse-elimination bracket: losing advances a team toward the Consolation Final, whose loser becomes Mundane Randy.

Round 1

9Jack168.14

8Joe111.94advances ↓

7Matt110.86advances ↓

10Shaun153.98

11Nate50.90

12Marco116.60

Placement game, no bracket meaning

Round 2

8Joe134.24advances ↓

12Marco148.12

7Matt138.88

11Nate112.16advances ↓

9Jack202.22

10Shaun92.76

Filler, already escaped

Consolation Final

Filler, already escaped

7Matt115.34

10Shaun146.38

Filler, already escaped

Placement Games

Games among eliminated playoff teams determine third through sixth place.

Round 2

Final

The Race

Odds after every week, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Seed	Owner	Pre	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	Rd 1	Semis	Finish
1	Worm	51	65	47	63	75	84	91	86	79	87	97	>99	100	100	100	100	100	8	12	7	11	13	16	20	17	14	16	19	22	18	21	23	22	0	8	5	8	5	3	2	1	1	2	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
2	Vinny	50	33	20	24	43	52	67	82	92	85	95	>99	100	100	100	100	100	9	5	2	3	6	7	10	14	17	14	14	18	15	18	23	21	0	8	13	17	15	8	6	4	2	1	1	1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
3	Pookie	50	59	62	69	57	68	81	89	97	99	99	99	100	100	100	100	100	8	9	9	10	7	9	11	13	16	18	15	13	17	12	9	0	0	8	6	6	5	7	4	2	1	<1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
4	Randy	50	42	50	68	61	75	66	83	75	84	96	92	100	100	100	100	100	8	7	8	12	10	15	12	18	15	18	23	19	23	17	20	37	61	8	10	7	4	4	2	3	1	2	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	Champion
5	Chester	50	44	41	47	55	68	80	66	56	75	87	85	>99	100	100	100	100	8	8	6	7	9	12	15	10	9	13	16	13	17	20	14	0	0	9	9	8	7	5	3	2	3	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
6	Pat	50	40	54	69	47	54	33	20	37	48	71	61	86	99	100	100	100	8	6	9	12	7	7	4	2	4	6	8	7	9	10	11	21	39	8	11	7	4	7	5	9	11	8	6	3	4	2	<1	0	0	0	Runner-Up
7	Matt	50	41	61	55	57	43	22	10	18	25	9	17	2	1	0	0	0	8	6	11	10	10	6	3	1	2	3	1	2	<1	<1	0	0	0	8	10	5	5	5	6	10	12	10	8	9	8	10	11	9	21	0	Missed Playoffs
8	Joe	51	57	73	59	72	58	66	77	66	47	24	12	0	0	0	0	0	9	10	13	10	12	9	10	12	9	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	8	7	3	6	3	5	4	2	4	6	9	12	15	14	15	27	52	Missed Playoffs
9	Jack	50	68	83	77	86	74	65	49	61	41	21	31	12	0	0	0	0	8	13	18	16	21	15	12	8	11	7	3	4	1	0	0	0	0	9	4	2	2	1	2	3	4	3	5	6	6	8	9	7	0	0	Missed Playoffs
10	Shaun	50	35	17	8	2	1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	5	2	1	<1	<1	0	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	12	19	23	29	31	31	30	31	33	31	29	27	19	16	0	0	Missed Playoffs
11	Nate	50	56	52	36	26	15	25	38	18	8	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	8	9	8	5	3	2	3	5	2	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	9	7	8	10	11	13	10	6	10	11	13	12	13	21	26	26	48	Mundane Randy
12	Marco	49	60	39	26	18	6	3	1	1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	10	5	3	2	1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	6	11	15	17	21	21	25	24	26	26	28	25	26	26	26	0	Missed Playoffs

Each week’s odds come from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, with team strength set by scoring to date and weighted toward the league average until the sample grows. Backtested on every week since 2013: teams given 70–80% made the playoffs 74% of the time.

Week-by-Week Results

Wk	Worm	Vinny	Pookie	Randy	Chester	Pat	Matt	Joe	Jack	Shaun	Nate	Marco
1	W148.50	L82.52	W118.84	L116.96	L127.32	L106.72	L114.18	W115.76	W158.26	L91.58	W107.14	W125.78
2	L71.56	L88.30	W98.04	W124.42	L138.78	W144.92	W169.34	W148.70	W160.94	L63.86	L132.70	L69.66
3	W153.48	W112.02	W98.10	W151.96	W113.68	W144.34	L135.08	L91.60	L119.16	L92.42	L99.46	L89.78
4	W141.92	W166.58	L108.50	L138.18	W124.84	L73.72	W99.48	W141.70	W147.32	L52.20	L122.50	L119.98
5	W130.76	W134.40	W120.04	W159.38	W154.82	W120.84	L119.20	L104.14	L110.22	L111.04	L107.36	L66.64
6	W137.52	W131.30	W131.90	L117.12	W126.52	L67.46	L66.86	W112.18	L119.06	L98.30	W136.88	L125.00
7	L111.30	W148.90	W102.76	W147.04	L89.04	L100.66	L85.30	W109.24	L87.14	W113.82	W144.68	L60.96
8	L111.04	W114.90	W129.02	L130.36	L131.08	W153.54	W142.08	L101.50	W129.32	L116.72	L84.08	W142.68
9	W122.42	L114.70	W131.74	W141.74	W166.70	W134.30	W128.46	L96.04	L120.74	L96.40	L126.22	L114.40
10	W142.32	W108.44	L97.00	W171.52	W121.90	W133.58	L101.34	L73.34	L88.08	W112.10	L69.76	L106.50
11	W129.06	W128.24	L113.30	L128.94	L124.48	L127.84	W124.38	L92.18	W104.64	W141.28	W134.28	L116.58
12	L103.72	L116.76	W142.66	W133.90	W167.98	W131.66	L97.20	L82.38	L88.10	W104.86	L101.12	W143.02
13	W146.76	W143.50	L113.94	L113.06	W165.78	L104.42	W80.30	W126.78	L127.34	W136.82	L73.98	L98.76
14	W112.74	W97.84	W115.72	W227.36	L114.76	W150.82	L155.76	L91.80	L131.76	L94.28	L77.82	W116.32
15	BYE	BYE	L112.02	W162.24	L148.90	W123.10	L110.86	L111.94	W168.14	W153.98	L50.90	W116.60
16	L112.48	L102.52	L94.08	W169.28	W109.28	W112.34	W138.88	L134.24	W202.22	L92.76	L112.16	W148.12
17	W145.60	L135.86	L87.90	W137.48	W155.22	L119.96	L115.34	W115.02	L127.08	W146.38	L101.94	W163.66