Seed	Owner	Team	Record	PF	PA	Finish	PF+	Luck	Alt. Title Rate
1	Joe	Ask Kerwynn Williams	9-4	1167.28	1091.78	Champion	97.9	2.9	4.1%
2	Mike	THAT'S THE CAT'S ASS	8-5	1319.40	1208.54	Runner-Up	110.7	-1.4	50.7%
3	Pat	Say No To Drug ..Tests	8-5	1229.00	1167.36	Playoffs (eliminated)	103.1	0.8	0.3%
4	Brent	Toms Gold Balls Gronks Kumquat	8-5	1190.64	1256.56	Playoffs (eliminated)	99.9	1.3	30.9%
5	Shaun	Lim Jahey	7-6	1319.92	1145.94	Playoffs (eliminated)	110.7	-1.3	1.6%
6	Jack	The Bullcock IS BACK	7-6	1232.94	1165.46	Playoffs (eliminated)	103.4	0.5	0.0%
7	Vinny	Pierce My Cotchery	7-6	1191.76	1192.76	Missed Playoffs	100.0	0.6	3.1%
8	Marco	Major Dickinson Ave	6-7	1238.74	1247.06	Missed Playoffs	103.9	-1.5	0.8%
9	Matt	The Dirty Burger	6-7	1215.14	1238.82	Missed Playoffs	101.9	-1.1	8.5%
10	Chester	Team lomanto	5-8	1199.76	1203.94	Missed Playoffs	100.6	-1.5	0.0%
11	Vose	Turtle Creek Totemscrotums	4-9	1002.98	1219.70	Missed Playoffs	84.1	0.8	<0.1%
12	Ian	MOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOKIE	3-10	997.58	1167.22	Mundane Randy	83.7	-0.3	<0.1%

Advanced standings

Owner	All-Play	xWins	Luck	Lineup Eff	Boom	Bust	Expected Seed	Seed Luck
Joe	46.9%	6.1	2.9	—	15.4%	15.4%	8.1	7.1
Mike	72.0%	9.4	-1.4	—	38.5%	7.7%	2.0	-0.0
Pat	55.2%	7.2	0.8	—	15.4%	15.4%	5.3	2.3
Brent	51.7%	6.7	1.3	—	15.4%	15.4%	6.8	2.8
Shaun	63.6%	8.3	-1.3	—	30.8%	7.7%	2.9	-2.1
Jack	49.7%	6.5	0.5	—	23.1%	15.4%	6.3	0.3
Vinny	49.0%	6.4	0.6	—	30.8%	30.8%	7.3	0.3
Marco	57.3%	7.5	-1.5	—	23.1%	7.7%	4.4	-3.6
Matt	54.5%	7.1	-1.1	—	7.7%	7.7%	5.7	-3.3
Chester	50.3%	6.5	-1.5	—	15.4%	23.1%	6.7	-3.3
Vose	24.5%	3.2	0.8	—	0.0%	46.2%	11.3	0.3
Ian	25.2%	3.3	-0.3	—	0.0%	23.1%	11.3	-0.7

Playoffs

Quarterfinals

1Joe

Bye

Bye

Semifinals

Final

Losers Bracket

Seeds 7–12 play a reverse-elimination bracket: losing advances a team toward the Consolation Final, whose loser becomes Mundane Randy.

Round 1

10Chester120.30

7Vinny103.72advances ↓

9Matt96.74

8Marco64.44advances ↓

11Vose132.30

12Ian71.44

Placement game, no bracket meaning

Round 2

11Vose86.50

7Vinny76.92advances ↓

Filler, already escaped

Consolation Final

Filler, already escaped

10Chester53.22

8Marco67.20

Filler, already escaped

Placement Games

Games among eliminated playoff teams determine third through sixth place.

Round 2

Final

The Race

Odds after every week, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Seed	Owner	Pre	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Rd 1	Semis	Finish
1	Joe	49	63	45	62	65	53	68	55	40	48	71	86	100	100	100	100	9	11	7	11	10	8	10	7	4	5	8	11	14	20	19	44	9	5	9	5	5	8	5	8	9	7	4	2	0	0	0	0	Champion
2	Mike	51	45	36	51	39	53	67	80	91	97	94	>99	>99	100	100	100	9	7	6	9	7	10	14	19	22	26	22	27	23	29	29	56	8	9	10	6	8	6	4	2	1	<1	1	0	<1	0	0	0	Runner-Up
3	Pat	49	65	72	57	37	54	45	65	80	73	90	72	90	100	100	100	9	12	13	9	5	7	6	10	13	10	16	11	15	12	0	0	9	5	4	6	11	8	9	5	2	3	1	3	1	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
4	Brent	50	36	24	31	18	34	43	52	68	85	95	85	100	100	100	100	9	6	3	4	2	5	6	7	9	12	17	13	18	10	0	0	8	11	15	13	17	12	9	8	5	2	<1	2	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
5	Shaun	50	66	60	50	67	54	39	26	35	49	25	31	53	100	100	100	9	12	10	9	14	11	8	4	6	8	4	5	8	17	31	0	8	5	6	7	3	5	7	9	7	4	8	5	4	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
6	Jack	50	31	41	51	67	54	67	54	39	24	55	58	71	100	100	100	8	4	6	7	10	7	10	7	4	2	7	8	11	12	21	0	8	14	11	9	5	8	5	7	9	11	5	4	3	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
7	Vinny	51	35	52	63	80	85	67	59	51	73	50	71	56	0	0	0	8	5	9	11	16	16	10	9	7	10	7	11	8	0	0	0	8	12	8	6	2	2	5	6	6	3	6	3	4	10	18	40	Missed Playoffs
8	Marco	50	34	50	37	57	49	60	76	90	95	90	73	31	0	0	0	8	5	8	5	10	9	11	15	20	21	17	12	4	0	0	0	8	12	7	11	6	7	5	3	1	<1	1	2	5	8	16	0	Missed Playoffs
9	Matt	50	67	79	72	80	72	82	74	58	39	15	23	0	0	0	0	8	12	16	15	16	14	17	14	9	5	2	3	0	0	0	0	9	4	3	4	2	4	2	3	5	7	11	7	10	9	0	0	Missed Playoffs
10	Chester	50	68	52	65	47	31	20	31	16	7	11	<1	0	0	0	0	8	13	9	11	6	4	2	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	8	4	7	5	8	13	14	12	15	15	13	15	15	9	0	0	Missed Playoffs
11	Vose	50	54	62	45	34	51	38	21	31	11	5	0	0	0	0	0	9	9	9	6	4	7	5	2	3	1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	8	8	7	10	12	8	11	16	12	18	21	25	25	32	32	0	Missed Playoffs
12	Ian	50	36	26	16	8	10	3	6	1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	5	4	2	1	1	<1	1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	11	14	18	20	21	24	22	28	30	30	31	33	33	34	60	Mundane Randy

Each week’s odds come from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, with team strength set by scoring to date and weighted toward the league average until the sample grows. Backtested on every week since 2013: teams given 70–80% made the playoffs 74% of the time.

Week-by-Week Results

Wk	Joe	Mike	Pat	Brent	Shaun	Jack	Vinny	Marco	Matt	Chester	Vose	Ian
1	W101.08	L100.40	W107.56	L78.56	W112.54	L58.96	L71.64	L71.26	W115.44	W119.32	W78.12	L74.74
2	L68.04	L95.08	W88.08	L71.76	L99.62	W98.94	W119.38	W111.16	W107.64	L67.88	W81.44	L85.18
3	W105.30	W109.70	L65.32	W90.76	L86.30	W78.98	W88.22	L76.20	L89.14	W95.12	L63.04	L75.20
4	W69.10	L100.92	L62.92	L69.56	W135.20	W112.78	W124.82	W126.44	W90.12	L70.80	L86.32	L78.48
5	L81.38	W111.38	W109.56	W125.88	L92.34	L75.04	W78.94	L107.86	L100.44	L73.84	W106.34	W77.30
6	W104.62	W116.10	L101.08	W93.24	L89.12	W104.56	L54.24	W112.04	W95.00	L90.24	L86.94	L75.66
7	L71.72	W99.56	W104.92	W74.44	L84.64	L72.90	L90.52	W97.80	L82.00	W95.88	L61.52	W95.60
8	L94.04	W120.90	W114.74	W106.76	W116.24	L99.42	L113.46	W123.58	L78.08	L90.44	W104.16	L56.54
9	W73.96	W112.86	L101.62	W108.72	W109.18	L82.84	W120.76	W81.82	L84.52	L94.98	L48.20	L63.34
10	W102.94	L70.16	W125.30	W95.62	L69.30	W157.60	L75.98	L79.18	L85.60	W99.38	L106.74	W95.14
11	W92.84	W104.22	L62.96	L66.58	W94.82	W69.34	W106.12	L84.80	W91.52	L84.00	L47.90	L67.58
12	W87.28	L92.32	W110.28	W125.26	W101.24	W111.26	W82.94	L87.40	L97.04	L104.40	L75.00	L85.16
13	W114.98	W85.80	W74.66	L83.50	W129.38	L110.32	L64.74	L79.20	W98.60	W113.48	L57.26	L67.66
14	BYE	BYE	L42.12	L110.20	W132.20	W110.28	L103.72	L64.44	W96.74	W120.30	W132.30	L71.44
15	W97.88	W96.58	L63.02	W117.90	L87.90	L63.00	L76.92	W73.46	W87.42	L82.50	W86.50	L68.30
16	W85.96	L79.06	L78.44	W119.80	L60.04	W84.72	W124.66	W67.20	L97.72	L53.22	W105.32	L64.34