Seed	Owner	Team	Record	PF	PA	Finish	PF+	Luck	Alt. Title Rate
1	Marco	Olé Papa Cren	11-3	1800.72	1573.86	Playoffs (eliminated)	107.8	2.3	32.1%
2	Joe	BurrowMyJohnson InAllMyCousins	10-4	1666.14	1558.52	Champion	99.7	2.9	19.4%
3	Jack	Gus' Knee Hurts	9-5	1930.44	1531.80	Playoffs (eliminated)	115.5	-0.5	8.5%
4	Chester	Team Lomanto	8-6	1714.42	1727.24	Runner-Up	102.6	-0.2	4.8%
5	Randy	Skimpy Crust	7-7	1840.16	1698.86	Playoffs (eliminated)	110.1	-1.5	28.5%
6	Nate	Dogg's gon' Dog	6-8	1791.34	1877.00	Playoffs (eliminated)	107.2	-2.5	0.5%
7	Shaun	Rock City Retardz	6-8	1675.32	1738.76	Missed Playoffs	100.3	-0.5	6.1%
8	Worm	SammyBs BigOleBooty	6-8	1590.12	1728.52	Missed Playoffs	95.2	-1.3	<0.1%
9	Pookie	Cuckholds .	6-8	1508.30	1670.28	Mundane Randy	90.3	1.0	0.0%
10	Matt	Stupid	6-8	1431.90	1554.38	Missed Playoffs	85.7	1.9	0.0%
11	Pat	Rock Anich Anus Stretchers	5-9	1625.24	1716.28	Missed Playoffs	97.3	-1.1	0.0%
12	Vinny	Matt Close's Camp for JuJus	4-10	1473.92	1672.52	Missed Playoffs	88.2	-0.6	0.0%

Advanced standings

Owner	All-Play	xWins	Luck	Lineup Eff	Boom	Bust	Expected Seed	Seed Luck	Vs. Proj.
Marco	62.3%	8.7	2.3	90.7%	14.3%	7.1%	3.4	2.4	+39.3
Joe	50.6%	7.1	2.9	85.5%	7.1%	0.0%	6.5	4.5	-36.2
Jack	67.5%	9.5	-0.5	88.2%	35.7%	7.1%	2.1	-0.9	+104.1
Chester	58.4%	8.2	-0.2	87.7%	7.1%	7.1%	4.7	0.7	-23.1
Randy	60.4%	8.5	-1.5	89.4%	42.9%	0.0%	3.6	-1.4	+52.6
Nate	60.4%	8.5	-2.5	88.1%	35.7%	7.1%	4.1	-1.9	+5.5
Shaun	46.8%	6.5	-0.5	84.5%	21.4%	14.3%	7.2	0.2	-131.9
Worm	51.9%	7.3	-1.3	91.9%	0.0%	21.4%	6.7	-1.3	-60.5
Pookie	35.7%	5.0	1.0	86.0%	7.1%	14.3%	9.8	0.8	-139.6
Matt	29.2%	4.1	1.9	87.9%	0.0%	42.9%	11.2	1.2	-171.5
Pat	43.5%	6.1	-1.1	90.2%	14.3%	35.7%	8.3	-2.7	-51.7
Vinny	33.1%	4.6	-0.6	83.6%	0.0%	28.6%	10.4	-1.6	-106.7

Where the wins came from

Owner	Wins +/-	Draft	Waivers	Trades	Lineup	Luck	Other
Marco	+4.0	-0.8	+1.2	+0.8	+0.6	+2.3	+0.1
Joe	+3.0	-0.3	+0.4	+0.6	-0.6	+2.9	+0.0
Jack	+2.0	+2.4	+1.0	+0.0	-0.3	-0.5	-0.7
Chester	+1.0	+1.2	-0.4	-0.3	-0.1	-0.2	+0.8
Randy	+0.0	+1.0	+0.5	+0.5	+0.2	-1.5	-0.6
Matt	-1.0	-3.0	+0.0	-0.0	+0.4	+1.9	-0.2
Nate	-1.0	+2.7	-0.8	-0.2	-0.1	-2.5	-0.1
Pookie	-1.0	-1.8	+0.2	-0.1	-0.2	+1.0	-0.2
Shaun	-1.0	+1.1	+0.3	-0.3	-0.9	-0.5	-0.6
Worm	-1.0	-0.9	-0.8	-0.3	+1.1	-1.3	+1.2
Pat	-2.0	+0.3	-1.0	-0.3	+0.7	-1.1	-0.5
Vinny	-3.0	-1.8	-0.5	-0.2	-0.7	-0.6	+0.8

In wins. See Where Wins Come From.

Biggest Upsets

Wk	Winner	Pregame	Score	Loser
11	Pookie	18%	105.20–92.64	Shaun
12	Matt	21%	107.60–95.84	Randy
6	Joe	24%	111.14–98.82	Nate
11	Marco	30%	135.56–131.12	Joe
12	Marco	32%	112.48–97.80	Nate

Playoffs

Quarterfinals

2Joe

Bye

Bye

Semifinals

Final

Losers Bracket

Seeds 7–12 play a reverse-elimination bracket: losing advances a team toward the Consolation Final, whose loser becomes Mundane Randy.

Round 1

8Worm122.52

9Pookie64.40advances ↓

7Shaun107.08advances ↓

10Matt109.24

11Pat107.58

12Vinny110.00

Placement game, no bracket meaning

Round 2

9Pookie76.00advances ↓

Filler, already escaped

Consolation Final

9Pookie105.28

11Pat111.72

Mundane Randy: Pookie

8Worm105.12

12Vinny94.66

Filler, already escaped

7Shaun121.04

10Matt89.20

Filler, already escaped

Placement Games

Games among eliminated playoff teams determine third through sixth place.

Round 2

Final

The Race

Odds after every week, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Seed	Owner	Pre	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	Rd 1	Semis	Finish
1	Marco	50	65	73	70	82	88	95	99	>99	>99	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	8	12	13	14	17	17	20	27	28	28	28	27	28	26	25	26	0	9	5	4	4	2	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
2	Joe	50	56	44	48	63	72	83	74	88	95	>99	99	100	100	100	100	100	8	9	7	7	8	9	10	8	9	11	15	14	19	20	20	19	48	8	8	10	9	6	4	3	3	2	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	Champion
3	Jack	50	38	24	15	21	37	51	71	86	95	92	98	99	100	100	100	100	9	6	3	2	3	4	7	11	14	19	16	21	17	18	18	34	0	8	11	15	18	15	9	6	3	1	<1	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
4	Chester	50	63	54	62	66	84	93	86	95	91	84	68	96	100	100	100	100	8	11	9	11	10	14	18	14	15	13	10	7	11	10	10	21	52	9	5	7	6	5	2	1	2	1	1	2	3	<1	0	0	0	0	Runner-Up
5	Randy	50	41	32	46	62	50	36	55	40	18	26	34	20	71	100	100	100	8	6	5	7	11	8	5	8	5	3	3	5	3	10	15	0	0	8	10	11	8	4	6	8	4	6	8	6	5	6	2	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
6	Nate	50	36	47	66	60	58	42	26	40	56	74	82	79	72	100	100	100	9	5	7	12	10	9	6	4	6	8	11	13	11	10	12	0	0	8	12	9	5	5	5	7	9	5	4	2	1	1	2	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
7	Shaun	50	64	54	66	84	93	96	93	90	80	92	79	73	42	0	0	0	8	12	10	12	19	22	23	18	16	11	13	9	8	5	0	0	0	8	5	7	5	2	1	<1	1	1	2	1	2	2	5	9	21	0	Missed Playoffs
8	Worm	50	33	44	31	20	9	6	11	5	2	2	1	7	0	0	0	0	8	5	6	4	3	1	1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1	1	0	0	0	0	9	13	9	12	16	20	20	16	18	18	14	12	10	12	11	0	0	Missed Playoffs
9	Pookie	50	38	47	58	50	65	52	57	42	57	30	39	25	15	0	0	0	9	6	7	9	7	10	6	7	4	6	3	4	2	1	0	0	0	8	11	9	7	8	4	6	5	7	5	8	7	9	10	13	27	54	Mundane Randy
10	Matt	50	64	57	42	25	10	7	2	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	12	10	6	3	1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	5	6	9	13	18	19	22	21	20	24	25	23	20	18	0	0	Missed Playoffs
11	Pat	50	62	76	61	43	23	32	17	10	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	11	15	10	6	3	3	1	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	6	4	6	9	14	12	17	18	21	20	22	24	21	21	24	46	Missed Playoffs
12	Vinny	50	39	47	35	23	13	8	9	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	6	7	5	3	1	1	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	11	9	11	15	16	18	18	21	21	22	23	24	28	28	29	0	Missed Playoffs

Each week’s odds come from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, with team strength set by scoring to date and weighted toward the league average until the sample grows. Backtested on every week since 2013: teams given 70–80% made the playoffs 74% of the time.

Week-by-Week Results

Wk	Marco	Joe	Jack	Chester	Randy	Nate	Shaun	Worm	Pookie	Matt	Pat	Vinny
1	W163.14	W119.24	L116.56	W150.06	L127.20	L105.60	W158.32	L92.92	L115.90	W153.98	W152.26	L120.28
2	W120.12	L110.28	L93.02	L126.74	L127.12	W133.56	L117.58	W138.50	W126.50	L127.48	W142.20	W128.82
3	L140.14	W104.80	L108.34	W113.38	W146.92	W167.82	W133.62	L108.54	W130.48	L101.88	L89.94	L104.10
4	W146.60	W135.22	W126.48	W97.66	W152.56	L130.42	W179.32	L99.22	L119.54	L82.06	L84.82	L106.92
5	W136.10	W121.60	W181.22	W183.64	L124.98	L168.40	W159.28	L88.26	W161.18	L74.98	L75.26	L111.78
6	W145.14	W111.14	W137.00	W139.78	L97.98	L98.82	W130.50	L129.00	L102.88	L134.98	W119.36	L118.78
7	W176.76	L113.80	W170.34	L95.84	W184.44	L130.38	L91.44	W138.66	W100.58	L89.98	L82.84	W94.34
8	W134.50	W119.30	W139.12	W130.80	L106.90	W132.86	L112.74	L104.26	L102.78	W97.58	L102.16	L89.00
9	W97.36	W93.08	W139.44	L89.46	L75.76	W123.86	L85.68	L109.90	W104.14	W82.10	L75.20	L106.36
10	W95.82	W137.02	L112.50	L99.50	W121.24	W140.84	W115.64	W131.68	L61.82	L74.48	L129.04	L103.34
11	W135.56	L131.12	W180.98	L104.38	W154.78	W145.16	L92.64	W88.60	W105.20	L82.02	L86.40	L75.20
12	W112.48	W126.32	L118.66	W130.44	L95.84	L97.80	L95.50	W126.98	L104.70	W107.60	L126.02	W103.12
13	L77.00	W127.40	W163.68	W124.42	W172.84	L98.50	L111.22	L105.36	L98.32	W126.86	W172.62	L85.56
14	L120.00	L115.82	W143.10	L128.32	W151.60	L117.32	L91.84	W128.24	L74.28	W95.92	W187.12	W126.32
15	BYE	BYE	W118.04	W103.36	L78.94	L67.90	L107.08	W122.52	L64.40	W109.24	L107.58	W110.00
16	L122.98	W217.20	L114.04	W143.38	W164.94	L85.56	W126.20	W120.78	L76.00	L90.62	L70.20	W113.32
17	L141.26	W138.44	W150.16	L116.50	W140.84	L140.00	W121.04	W105.12	L105.28	L89.20	W111.72	L94.66