Seed	Owner	Team	Record	PF	PA	Finish	PF+	Luck	Alt. Title Rate
1	Matt	Pork Slap	10-4	1835.88	1569.82	Champion	109.8	0.5	60.3%
2	Shaun	Len Martin's Mouth	9-5	1965.34	1802.26	Runner-Up	117.5	-0.9	39.5%
3	Pat	Rock Anich Anus Stretchers	9-5	1665.16	1403.62	Playoffs (eliminated)	99.6	2.1	0.0%
4	Vinny	THE Tight End University	9-5	1596.58	1601.80	Playoffs (eliminated)	95.5	2.0	0.0%
5	Joe	Diggs her Gus in her Ka Hunt	8-6	1804.62	1826.40	Playoffs (eliminated)	107.9	-1.1	0.1%
6	Chester	Team Lomanto	8-6	1779.30	1684.00	Playoffs (eliminated)	106.4	0.3	<0.1%
7	Jack	The Academy	6-8	1715.68	1690.00	Missed Playoffs	102.6	-1.3	0.0%
8	Randy	Jumblefunk Flapstick	6-8	1594.84	1587.60	Missed Playoffs	95.4	0.0	<0.1%
9	Nate	Dogg's gon' Dog	6-8	1558.60	1688.02	Mundane Randy	93.2	0.3	<0.1%
10	Marco	Lincoln Lunky	6-8	1476.88	1728.04	Missed Playoffs	88.3	1.1	0.0%
11	Worm	Turd Baler	5-9	1621.02	1706.32	Missed Playoffs	96.9	-1.6	0.0%
12	Pookie	Poo	2-12	1451.50	1777.52	Missed Playoffs	86.8	-1.3	0.0%

Advanced standings

Owner	All-Play	xWins	Luck	Lineup Eff	Boom	Bust	Expected Seed	Seed Luck	Vs. Proj.
Matt	68.2%	9.5	0.5	89.9%	14.3%	0.0%	2.6	1.6	+69.1
Shaun	70.8%	9.9	-0.9	91.7%	28.6%	7.1%	1.9	-0.1	+94.5
Pat	49.4%	6.9	2.1	90.2%	14.3%	21.4%	6.5	3.5	+41.1
Vinny	50.0%	7.0	2.0	87.8%	7.1%	14.3%	6.8	2.8	+16.6
Joe	64.9%	9.1	-1.1	88.9%	21.4%	14.3%	3.1	-1.9	+39.7
Chester	55.2%	7.7	0.3	88.8%	14.3%	0.0%	5.1	-0.9	+124.0
Jack	52.3%	7.3	-1.3	89.5%	21.4%	0.0%	5.8	-1.2	+30.2
Randy	42.9%	6.0	0.0	88.0%	7.1%	14.3%	8.4	0.4	-84.3
Nate	40.6%	5.7	0.3	84.4%	21.4%	35.7%	9.0	0.0	-83.8
Marco	35.1%	4.9	1.1	85.4%	7.1%	35.7%	10.1	0.1	-166.9
Worm	47.4%	6.6	-1.6	87.2%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1	-3.9	-17.6
Pookie	23.4%	3.3	-1.3	88.7%	7.1%	42.9%	11.7	-0.3	-84.7

Where the wins came from

Owner	Wins +/-	Draft	Waivers	Trades	Lineup	Luck	Other
Matt	+3.0	-0.2	+2.1	-0.1	+0.1	+0.5	+0.6
Pat	+2.0	+1.1	-1.4	-0.1	+0.4	+2.1	-0.1
Shaun	+2.0	+3.2	-0.1	-0.1	+0.5	-0.9	-0.6
Vinny	+2.0	-0.1	-0.6	-0.1	-0.0	+2.0	+0.9
Chester	+1.0	+1.5	+0.1	-0.1	-0.0	+0.3	-0.6
Joe	+1.0	+1.3	-0.1	+0.4	-0.1	-1.1	+0.6
Jack	-1.0	+1.2	-0.6	-0.1	+0.2	-1.3	-0.2
Marco	-1.0	-3.0	+0.9	+0.3	-0.4	+1.1	+0.2
Nate	-1.0	-0.6	-0.6	+0.7	-0.8	+0.3	+0.0
Randy	-1.0	-1.7	+0.6	-0.1	+0.0	+0.0	+0.3
Worm	-2.0	+0.6	-0.8	-0.1	-0.2	-1.6	+0.1
Pookie	-5.0	-3.4	+0.6	-0.1	+0.4	-1.3	-1.2

In wins. See Where Wins Come From.

Biggest Upsets

Wk	Winner	Pregame	Score	Loser
14	Vinny	16%	113.00–106.38	Shaun
7	Nate	28%	112.60–98.98	Worm
7	Pookie	28%	195.80–123.84	Joe
5	Pookie	34%	132.16–115.92	Jack
17	Matt	34%	136.94–135.28	Shaun

Playoffs

Quarterfinals

Bye

Bye

Semifinals

Final

Losers Bracket

Seeds 7–12 play a reverse-elimination bracket: losing advances a team toward the Consolation Final, whose loser becomes Mundane Randy.

Round 1

7Jack94.88advances ↓

10Marco111.76

8Randy149.20

9Nate113.42advances ↓

11Worm133.58

12Pookie86.96

Placement game, no bracket meaning

Round 2

7Jack99.92

11Worm84.80advances ↓

9Nate117.92advances ↓

12Pookie123.68

8Randy121.70

10Marco85.22

Filler, already escaped

Consolation Final

Filler, already escaped

10Marco118.70

12Pookie120.46

Filler, already escaped

Placement Games

Games among eliminated playoff teams determine third through sixth place.

Round 2

Final

The Race

Odds after every week, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Seed	Owner	Pre	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	Rd 1	Semis	Finish
1	Matt	50	62	72	80	87	85	91	86	93	90	97	100	100	100	100	100	100	9	11	12	15	16	16	17	15	17	15	16	20	21	25	26	24	45	8	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	Champion
2	Shaun	50	71	85	79	87	76	85	92	89	81	93	99	100	100	100	100	100	9	15	20	17	20	14	16	19	17	15	17	20	27	33	33	32	55	9	4	2	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	Runner-Up
3	Pat	50	63	45	55	39	58	49	63	72	59	73	67	75	100	100	100	100	9	11	7	8	4	8	6	8	9	7	8	6	5	7	8	0	0	9	6	9	7	10	6	6	5	3	5	3	4	3	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
4	Vinny	50	60	67	76	86	74	87	75	87	96	99	99	>99	100	100	100	100	8	10	11	12	15	11	13	9	11	14	15	11	9	8	7	0	0	8	6	5	3	2	4	1	3	2	1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
5	Joe	51	45	36	49	64	68	82	76	88	96	99	100	100	100	100	100	100	8	8	5	9	11	12	15	14	17	22	27	28	22	14	14	24	0	9	9	10	7	4	3	2	2	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
6	Chester	50	37	52	40	62	80	88	93	91	82	74	90	96	100	100	100	100	8	5	8	6	11	17	18	21	20	15	11	12	13	13	12	20	0	8	11	7	9	4	2	1	1	1	2	2	1	<1	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
7	Jack	50	57	58	51	37	25	34	18	7	9	16	4	3	0	0	0	0	9	9	10	9	5	4	5	3	1	1	2	1	<1	0	0	0	0	9	7	5	7	8	10	7	10	14	13	9	12	9	8	8	20	0	Missed Playoffs
8	Randy	50	41	59	68	59	68	48	61	44	61	38	23	6	0	0	0	0	8	6	10	12	9	11	6	8	5	7	4	2	<1	0	0	0	0	8	10	6	4	5	4	6	5	7	5	8	10	12	13	12	0	0	Missed Playoffs
9	Nate	51	42	24	12	5	10	5	7	15	6	2	4	0	0	0	0	0	9	7	3	2	<1	1	1	1	1	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	8	9	15	19	23	18	18	18	13	18	20	16	20	19	12	24	53	Mundane Randy
10	Marco	50	56	58	40	26	16	8	4	7	16	7	14	21	0	0	0	0	8	9	8	5	2	2	1	<1	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	8	7	7	12	14	19	22	26	21	15	18	14	11	15	16	0	0	Missed Playoffs
11	Worm	50	32	22	36	43	30	17	8	3	4	2	<1	0	0	0	0	0	8	5	3	5	5	3	2	1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	13	15	10	8	12	13	16	21	19	17	18	18	16	22	24	47	Missed Playoffs
12	Pookie	50	34	22	14	7	11	5	16	5	1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	5	3	1	1	1	<1	2	1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	12	15	17	20	18	20	12	16	19	22	26	27	28	30	32	0	Missed Playoffs

Each week’s odds come from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, with team strength set by scoring to date and weighted toward the league average until the sample grows. Backtested on every week since 2013: teams given 70–80% made the playoffs 74% of the time.

Week-by-Week Results

Wk	Matt	Shaun	Pat	Vinny	Joe	Chester	Jack	Randy	Nate	Marco	Worm	Pookie
1	W124.26	W165.00	W129.44	W116.44	L122.64	L91.18	W111.06	L102.94	L111.06	W103.78	L70.00	L75.64
2	W131.28	W169.12	L86.84	W118.44	L124.56	W149.32	L156.30	W162.90	L77.90	W89.58	L108.94	L103.56
3	W132.98	L126.98	W127.08	W130.36	W152.32	L120.74	L137.10	W136.78	L95.26	L80.58	W162.10	L119.12
4	W123.70	W142.96	L100.80	W126.36	W157.28	W177.32	L114.38	L115.22	L68.50	L87.20	W115.82	L93.40
5	L138.84	L78.32	W154.08	L82.80	W92.22	W169.54	L115.92	W116.54	W173.36	L101.28	L99.76	W132.16
6	W119.22	W127.80	L122.72	W145.24	W151.28	W124.42	W122.88	L82.24	L105.54	L88.70	L99.00	L102.76
7	L115.98	W117.36	W124.82	L61.86	L123.84	W124.06	L97.16	W114.46	W112.60	L88.64	L98.98	W195.80
8	W121.08	L142.96	W109.66	W126.38	W153.46	L136.88	L102.62	L110.70	W161.38	W152.12	L117.10	L96.56
9	L103.28	L117.18	L98.32	W119.80	W127.52	L92.74	W90.04	W117.60	L75.68	W146.52	W98.02	L87.94
10	W127.72	W137.26	W87.40	W112.58	W187.96	L125.72	W151.12	L80.92	L101.46	L98.98	L143.84	L89.98
11	W155.76	W139.90	L113.16	L104.44	W123.50	W103.94	L91.30	L92.88	W119.80	W120.86	L129.12	L79.14
12	W142.78	W210.30	W95.28	L127.76	L115.44	W154.58	W153.68	L113.52	L73.10	W139.74	L124.86	L102.06
13	W158.96	W183.82	W137.04	L111.12	L78.10	W109.62	L156.08	L120.70	W126.18	L70.26	W143.26	L102.36
14	L140.04	L106.38	W178.52	W113.00	L94.50	L99.24	W116.04	W127.44	W156.78	L108.64	W110.22	L71.02
15	BYE	BYE	L108.94	L86.96	W128.14	W120.62	L94.88	W149.20	L113.42	W111.76	W133.58	L86.96
16	W185.08	W160.94	L90.20	W149.82	L126.42	L101.88	W99.92	W121.70	L117.92	L85.22	L84.80	W123.68
17	W136.94	L135.28	W135.02	L62.48	W107.32	L93.84	L105.16	W111.70	L115.18	L118.70	W175.00	W120.46