Seed	Owner	Team	Record	PF	PA	Finish	PF+	Luck	Alt. Title Rate
1	Vose	Turtle Creek Totemscrotums	12-1	1909.60	1476.32	Runner-Up	123.1	1.3	7.0%
2	Joe	Turn down for Watt?	9-4	1834.96	1453.40	Champion	118.3	-0.3	76.2%
3	Vinny	I Ertz My Balls	9-4	1673.56	1614.44	Playoffs (eliminated)	107.9	0.9	1.4%
4	Nate	Coughlin's Cock Stinks like Shi	9-4	1670.06	1499.40	Playoffs (eliminated)	107.6	0.9	0.2%
5	Marco	East Sussex Slim Weiners	7-6	1401.54	1478.86	Playoffs (eliminated)	90.3	2.2	0.0%
6	Mike	2014 PANTHERS	6-7	1478.26	1578.36	Playoffs (eliminated)	95.3	0.1	10.9%
7	Matt	Dirty Mike and The Boys	5-8	1650.90	1612.02	Missed Playoffs	106.4	-2.7	3.9%
8	Jack	Suck It Trebek	5-8	1435.74	1609.94	Missed Playoffs	92.5	-0.3	0.2%
9	Chester	Team lomanto	5-8	1377.56	1516.84	Missed Playoffs	88.8	0.9	<0.1%
10	Pat	Gronk If Your Horny	4-9	1489.24	1618.88	Missed Playoffs	96.0	-1.9	0.0%
11	Shaun	The Wrap-Around	4-9	1391.14	1593.72	Missed Playoffs	89.7	-0.5	<0.1%
12	Brent	Peace!!! BERNT	3-10	1307.50	1567.88	Mundane Randy	84.3	-0.6	0.0%

Advanced standings

Owner	All-Play	xWins	Luck	Lineup Eff	Boom	Bust	Expected Seed	Seed Luck
Vose	82.5%	10.7	1.3	—	61.5%	0.0%	1.2	0.2
Joe	71.3%	9.3	-0.3	—	46.2%	0.0%	2.5	0.5
Vinny	62.2%	8.1	0.9	—	15.4%	0.0%	3.9	0.9
Nate	62.2%	8.1	0.9	—	30.8%	15.4%	4.0	0.0
Marco	37.1%	4.8	2.2	—	0.0%	23.1%	8.9	3.9
Mike	45.5%	5.9	0.1	—	0.0%	15.4%	7.2	1.2
Matt	59.4%	7.7	-2.7	—	7.7%	15.4%	4.6	-2.4
Jack	40.6%	5.3	-0.3	—	7.7%	38.5%	8.1	0.1
Chester	31.5%	4.1	0.9	—	0.0%	30.8%	10.2	1.2
Pat	45.5%	5.9	-1.9	—	0.0%	0.0%	7.0	-3.0
Shaun	34.3%	4.5	-0.5	—	7.7%	30.8%	9.6	-1.4
Brent	28.0%	3.6	-0.6	—	0.0%	38.5%	10.8	-1.2

Playoffs

Quarterfinals

1Vose

Bye

4Nate124.80

5Marco132.08

2Joe

Bye

Semifinals

Final

Losers Bracket

Seeds 7–12 play a reverse-elimination bracket: losing advances a team toward the Consolation Final, whose loser becomes Mundane Randy.

Round 1

Placement game, no bracket meaning

Round 2

7Matt136.60advances ↓

11Shaun148.06

8Jack117.08

12Brent63.34advances ↓

9Chester121.74

10Pat116.56

Filler, already escaped

Consolation Final

Filler, already escaped

8Jack137.02

10Pat98.44

Filler, already escaped

Placement Games

Games among eliminated playoff teams determine third through sixth place.

Round 2

Final

The Race

Odds after every week, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Seed	Owner	Pre	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Rd 1	Semis	Finish
1	Vose	49	76	83	91	97	99	>99	>99	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	8	16	18	19	25	27	30	29	31	33	32	32	35	36	40	52	8	3	2	1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	Runner-Up
2	Joe	49	47	70	59	71	86	94	98	>99	>99	100	100	100	100	100	100	9	8	15	10	13	17	19	21	24	25	29	26	21	30	34	48	8	7	3	4	3	1	1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	Champion
3	Vinny	50	42	54	63	73	82	80	91	87	98	100	100	100	100	100	100	8	6	8	9	10	10	8	11	8	11	11	12	12	11	0	0	9	9	7	5	4	2	3	1	2	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
4	Nate	51	71	85	95	91	94	98	95	99	98	100	100	100	100	100	100	8	14	19	27	22	21	21	16	19	15	15	15	18	12	0	0	8	4	2	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
5	Marco	50	31	38	28	14	18	14	22	38	63	45	26	55	100	100	100	9	4	5	3	1	1	1	2	3	4	2	1	3	5	12	0	8	13	12	14	18	16	18	14	10	5	7	10	6	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
6	Mike	50	55	45	40	23	15	26	17	31	50	72	94	67	100	100	100	8	8	6	5	3	1	2	2	3	4	5	7	4	6	14	0	8	8	9	9	13	14	12	12	9	5	2	1	3	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
7	Matt	50	48	30	46	36	65	55	68	51	37	19	36	65	0	0	0	9	8	4	6	5	10	8	10	6	5	2	4	7	0	0	0	8	8	12	7	8	3	4	2	4	5	6	4	2	7	16	36	Missed Playoffs
8	Jack	50	64	47	31	36	22	38	57	48	23	50	43	10	0	0	0	8	11	7	4	4	2	3	5	4	2	3	3	1	0	0	0	9	5	8	12	11	13	10	6	7	11	6	6	10	11	23	0	Missed Playoffs
9	Chester	50	47	34	43	55	43	32	19	33	17	7	1	3	0	0	0	8	6	4	5	5	3	3	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	9	10	13	10	7	10	12	15	11	15	15	16	13	14	0	0	Missed Playoffs
10	Pat	49	56	48	61	52	42	33	19	8	13	7	0	0	0	0	0	8	9	7	8	6	5	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	8	7	7	6	6	7	9	11	13	11	11	13	19	12	0	0	Missed Playoffs
11	Shaun	51	34	27	13	7	3	7	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	5	4	2	1	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	12	13	18	19	22	19	21	25	24	26	24	16	27	29	0	Missed Playoffs
12	Brent	51	30	37	31	43	29	23	11	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	4	4	3	5	3	2	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	14	12	13	9	11	13	16	20	24	26	27	30	31	32	64	Mundane Randy

Each week’s odds come from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, with team strength set by scoring to date and weighted toward the league average until the sample grows. Backtested on every week since 2013: teams given 70–80% made the playoffs 74% of the time.

Week-by-Week Results

Wk	Vose	Joe	Vinny	Nate	Marco	Mike	Matt	Jack	Chester	Pat	Shaun	Brent
1	W176.02	L134.74	L116.34	W159.96	L79.12	W103.90	L135.54	W135.94	W83.82	W111.74	L93.74	L80.30
2	W126.54	W174.46	W131.04	W153.90	W113.78	L112.50	L90.20	L85.52	L92.90	L118.36	L121.54	W106.94
3	W146.42	L126.38	W129.60	W195.82	L111.56	L139.74	W150.32	L107.10	W124.00	W134.12	L96.20	L130.46
4	W151.22	W126.64	W102.46	L101.06	L78.88	L75.82	L108.14	W92.04	W109.44	L108.70	L104.48	W118.82
5	W140.10	W156.14	W112.40	W108.14	W99.44	L114.90	W193.86	L81.26	L89.88	L116.02	L86.62	L97.54
6	W155.98	W128.84	L117.36	W130.10	L120.86	W119.58	L125.42	W142.20	L110.68	L113.30	W133.94	L116.90
7	W112.40	W138.18	W140.28	L80.80	W122.10	L126.20	W142.58	W138.84	L98.52	L110.90	L98.70	L108.96
8	W156.34	W153.98	L110.32	W168.96	W136.20	W134.54	L114.74	L121.78	W119.74	L113.04	L97.50	L83.90
9	W167.16	L166.86	W161.08	L90.76	W128.52	W144.90	L140.22	L63.92	L100.08	W114.90	W98.84	L96.64
10	W137.66	W176.16	W117.68	W112.42	L104.84	W102.86	L83.68	W152.12	L107.82	L99.34	L69.82	L63.00
11	L88.28	W75.48	W138.14	W109.28	L56.22	W102.02	W120.10	L106.48	L89.00	L90.04	W93.20	L100.52
12	W184.00	L115.54	L144.22	W128.84	W121.14	L76.62	W127.10	L96.36	W145.70	L105.58	W180.40	L83.20
13	W167.48	W161.56	W152.64	L130.02	W128.88	L124.68	L119.00	L112.18	L105.98	W153.20	L116.16	W120.32
14	BYE	BYE	L102.70	L124.80	W132.08	W118.08	L78.66	L99.80	W128.60	W154.42	W112.78	L66.04
15	W128.08	W211.76	W146.80	L98.46	L91.10	L146.74	L136.60	W117.08	W121.74	L116.56	W148.06	L63.34
16	L111.64	W127.40	L102.78	W109.80	L130.56	W139.98	W126.36	W137.02	L107.24	L98.44	W108.86	L51.10