Seed	Owner	Team	Record	PF	PA	Finish	PF+	Luck	Alt. Title Rate
1	Jack	Catching Kelce	9-4	1827.94	1509.50	Champion	117.0	-1.2	94.3%
2	Nate	Comedak Kidz	9-4	1748.12	1628.40	Playoffs (eliminated)	111.9	0.1	0.3%
3	Shaun	Albright's Lunchbox	8-5	1687.32	1500.16	Playoffs (eliminated)	108.0	-0.3	2.9%
4	Chester	Team lomanto	8-5	1517.64	1579.52	Playoffs (eliminated)	97.1	1.2	1.6%
5	Vinny	Adrian's Switch	7-6	1562.14	1506.14	Playoffs (eliminated)	100.0	0.4	0.0%
6	Vose	Turtle Creek Totemscrotums	6-7	1511.90	1544.86	Runner-Up	96.8	0.2	0.1%
7	Matt	Poyfairs United FFC	6-7	1499.24	1542.14	Mundane Randy	95.9	0.5	0.0%
8	Joe	Scam Newton	6-7	1469.42	1625.84	Missed Playoffs	94.0	0.7	0.0%
9	Mike	2016 A. Luck-y ASS	5-8	1543.92	1537.66	Missed Playoffs	98.8	-0.7	0.0%
10	Pat	Team Censorship	5-8	1540.40	1583.08	Missed Playoffs	98.6	-1.3	0.8%
11	Brent	team with Blount on it	5-8	1499.96	1592.32	Missed Playoffs	96.0	-0.5	0.0%
12	Marco	Gimmie Some Relish	4-9	1344.00	1602.38	Missed Playoffs	86.0	0.8	<0.1%

Advanced standings

Owner	All-Play	xWins	Luck	Lineup Eff	Boom	Bust	Expected Seed	Seed Luck
Jack	78.3%	10.2	-1.2	—	46.2%	0.0%	1.3	0.3
Nate	68.5%	8.9	0.1	—	38.5%	7.7%	2.4	0.4
Shaun	63.6%	8.3	-0.3	—	38.5%	15.4%	3.2	0.2
Chester	52.4%	6.8	1.2	—	7.7%	15.4%	5.9	1.9
Vinny	51.0%	6.6	0.4	—	7.7%	7.7%	5.7	0.7
Vose	44.8%	5.8	0.2	—	7.7%	15.4%	7.7	1.7
Matt	42.0%	5.5	0.5	—	7.7%	30.8%	8.7	1.7
Joe	40.6%	5.3	0.7	—	0.0%	15.4%	9.2	1.2
Mike	44.1%	5.7	-0.7	—	7.7%	7.7%	7.3	-1.7
Pat	48.3%	6.3	-1.3	—	15.4%	15.4%	6.6	-3.4
Brent	42.0%	5.5	-0.5	—	15.4%	15.4%	8.5	-2.5
Marco	24.5%	3.2	0.8	—	0.0%	30.8%	11.5	-0.5

Playoffs

Quarterfinals

Bye

Bye

Semifinals

Final

Losers Bracket

Seeds 7–12 play a reverse-elimination bracket: losing advances a team toward the Consolation Final, whose loser becomes Mundane Randy.

Round 1

Placement game, no bracket meaning

Round 2

8Joe100.80

12Marco86.58advances ↓

Filler, already escaped

Consolation Final

Filler, already escaped

10Pat146.08

11Brent108.70

Filler, already escaped

Placement Games

Games among eliminated playoff teams determine third through sixth place.

Round 2

Final

The Race

Odds after every week, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Seed	Owner	Pre	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Rd 1	Semis	Finish
1	Jack	50	45	52	77	85	93	98	99	99	>99	100	100	100	100	100	100	8	7	9	16	20	24	27	27	28	29	32	32	32	33	34	62	8	9	7	3	2	1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	Champion
2	Nate	49	57	45	62	56	47	28	44	63	80	95	100	100	100	100	100	8	9	7	10	10	8	4	7	8	14	16	18	23	28	30	0	9	7	9	5	6	7	11	6	4	2	<1	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
3	Shaun	49	64	78	64	49	69	84	94	99	97	>99	100	100	100	100	100	8	12	15	10	8	11	17	20	26	22	22	23	19	14	0	0	9	5	3	5	8	4	2	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
4	Chester	50	37	57	36	44	59	47	27	44	52	72	95	94	100	100	100	9	5	10	5	6	9	6	3	4	5	7	8	8	8	0	0	9	11	6	11	10	6	7	12	8	7	3	1	1	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
5	Vinny	49	30	42	48	43	53	63	53	73	65	52	30	82	100	100	100	9	4	6	7	6	7	8	6	9	7	5	3	8	10	19	0	8	13	10	9	11	8	6	7	4	4	5	8	2	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
6	Vose	51	69	73	59	66	78	65	81	74	85	79	79	51	100	100	100	9	13	13	9	10	12	9	11	8	10	7	7	5	7	17	38	8	4	4	6	5	3	5	3	3	2	2	2	6	0	0	0	Runner-Up
7	Matt	49	62	47	58	40	27	44	27	16	25	9	22	55	0	0	0	8	10	7	9	5	4	6	3	2	2	1	2	4	0	0	0	8	6	9	6	10	14	8	11	14	10	13	9	5	12	23	44	Mundane Randy
8	Joe	50	37	51	64	56	44	48	58	40	20	8	2	<1	0	0	0	8	5	8	10	10	6	6	7	4	2	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	8	12	8	5	6	8	7	5	9	12	14	16	15	13	23	0	Missed Playoffs
9	Mike	50	73	65	73	63	69	61	75	64	41	61	60	19	0	0	0	8	16	14	15	12	12	10	12	8	5	7	6	1	0	0	0	8	4	4	3	4	4	5	3	4	7	4	4	8	10	0	0	Missed Playoffs
10	Pat	51	56	46	34	50	33	53	39	23	34	23	11	0	0	0	0	9	8	6	5	8	4	7	5	2	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	9	7	9	11	8	11	6	8	11	7	9	10	14	11	0	0	Missed Playoffs
11	Brent	50	35	22	14	28	17	5	2	3	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	5	3	2	4	3	1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	12	16	18	13	15	20	21	19	22	23	21	22	23	22	0	Missed Playoffs
12	Marco	50	34	22	12	19	10	4	1	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	9	5	3	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	12	16	18	17	20	23	25	25	28	27	28	28	31	31	56	Missed Playoffs

Each week’s odds come from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, with team strength set by scoring to date and weighted toward the league average until the sample grows. Backtested on every week since 2013: teams given 70–80% made the playoffs 74% of the time.

Week-by-Week Results

Wk	Jack	Nate	Shaun	Chester	Vinny	Vose	Matt	Joe	Mike	Pat	Brent	Marco
1	L139.46	W125.88	W149.14	L118.96	L89.10	W164.60	W141.42	L113.56	W187.20	W123.86	L108.92	L100.84
2	W122.56	L106.52	W149.58	W155.56	W132.16	W113.36	L97.72	W139.52	L124.78	L112.12	L95.60	L99.76
3	W185.04	W155.20	L94.16	L81.76	W114.64	L92.18	W130.94	W137.38	W117.04	L113.90	L122.00	L108.88
4	W131.92	L130.54	L92.94	W104.86	L117.04	W101.50	L83.28	L126.50	L115.96	W139.18	W154.22	W117.72
5	W138.00	L125.06	W154.64	W139.08	W120.06	W130.40	L109.72	L114.10	W102.68	L97.26	L112.60	L111.46
6	W152.16	L84.08	W151.18	L118.60	W108.74	L90.66	W148.10	W94.98	L116.88	W153.46	L72.80	L92.12
7	W115.58	W151.64	W158.88	L72.10	L120.84	W141.16	L96.08	W109.06	W140.02	L114.34	L132.04	L102.92
8	L149.72	W141.48	W165.00	W137.72	W145.08	L116.50	L124.10	L96.08	L114.40	L98.94	W121.10	W111.02
9	W110.08	W162.28	L98.36	W115.26	L138.78	W120.24	W120.22	L100.10	L97.86	W140.28	L106.06	L101.06
10	W185.00	W165.06	W135.04	W128.74	L119.20	L116.82	L103.92	L113.74	W124.98	L128.54	L107.58	W104.46
11	W138.10	W122.78	W127.60	W114.00	L90.88	L116.78	W126.30	L81.58	L113.08	L96.44	W112.12	L94.58
12	L126.14	W169.00	L112.84	L113.60	W159.18	L103.64	W127.10	W110.44	L77.86	L104.22	W108.98	W121.62
13	L134.18	W108.60	L97.96	W117.40	W106.44	L104.06	L90.34	W132.38	L111.18	W117.86	W145.94	L77.56
14	BYE	BYE	L128.04	L96.98	W124.16	W131.36	L69.08	L82.20	W97.58	W96.64	L75.52	W139.90
15	W143.52	L86.26	W111.62	L104.72	L70.40	W128.14	L95.56	W100.80	W104.14	L101.58	W99.22	L86.58
16	W171.90	W127.18	L134.36	W140.68	L107.40	L123.98	L79.46	L99.12	W100.98	W146.08	L108.70	W155.22