2018–present
Where Wins Come From
Wins above an average team, per season, by where the points came from.
| Owner | Seasons | Wins +/- | Draft | Waivers | Trades | Lineup | Luck | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt | 8 | +1.81 | -1.39 | +1.62 | +0.68 | +0.11 | +0.82 | -0.03 |
| Pat | 8 | +0.44 | +0.26 | -0.18 | -0.26 | +0.18 | +0.44 | +0.00 |
| Chester | 8 | +0.31 | +1.09 | -0.35 | -0.29 | +0.25 | -0.32 | -0.06 |
| Shaun | 8 | +0.31 | +0.20 | +0.25 | -0.09 | -0.03 | -0.13 | +0.10 |
| Pookie | 8 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.14 | -0.05 | -0.01 | +0.19 | -0.10 |
| Jack | 8 | -0.19 | +1.01 | +0.23 | +0.11 | -0.52 | -0.93 | -0.08 |
| Worm | 5 | -0.20 | +0.29 | -0.40 | -0.16 | -0.09 | -0.16 | +0.34 |
| Joe | 8 | -0.31 | -0.14 | -0.01 | +0.12 | -0.23 | +0.04 | -0.09 |
| Randy | 8 | -0.31 | -0.32 | -0.00 | +0.31 | +0.22 | -0.23 | -0.30 |
| Marco | 8 | -0.44 | -1.28 | +0.35 | -0.10 | -0.04 | +0.35 | +0.29 |
| Mike | 3 | -0.50 | -0.90 | -0.44 | -0.47 | +0.30 | +1.06 | -0.05 |
| Vinny | 8 | -0.56 | -0.29 | -0.95 | +0.03 | +0.37 | +0.05 | +0.23 |
| Nate | 8 | -0.94 | +1.01 | -0.68 | -0.18 | -0.36 | -0.57 | -0.15 |
Per-season averages over completed seasons. Each season’s breakdown is on its season page.
What Repeats
Share of each part that belongs to the owner rather than the season (intraclass correlation across owner-seasons): waivers 0.46, draft 0.09, lineup 0.07, trades 0.09, luck 0.00, total wins 0.00. Waiver work is the one part that carries from year to year; the rest mostly doesn’t.
Method
- Draft, Waivers, Trades
- Points above replacement from the players in each week’s best possible lineup, credited by how the owner acquired each player: draft pick, waiver or free-agent add, or trade.
- Lineup
- Points left on the bench compared with an average manager.
- Luck
- Actual wins minus xWins, the record expected from all-play.
- Other
- The replacement-level baseline, players with no acquisition record, and the small gap between xWins and what scoring predicts.
- Scale
- Points become wins at the season’s points per xWin: about 80 in PPR seasons, 85 since the 17-game schedule. The parts add up exactly to wins above average.