Seed	Owner	Team	Record	PF	PA	Finish	PF+	Luck	Alt. Title Rate
1	Randy	THE STUMP	10-3	1805.30	1513.12	Playoffs (eliminated)	115.7	1.0	6.6%
2	Marco	Popey and Pals	9-4	1659.58	1491.08	Runner-Up	106.3	1.1	14.0%
3	Matt	Stupid	8-5	1517.66	1458.96	Playoffs (eliminated)	97.2	1.7	4.0%
4	Pat	Four Seasons TOT Landscaping	8-5	1491.42	1550.74	Playoffs (eliminated)	95.6	1.9	2.6%
5	Shaun	OJ's OG's	7-6	1594.06	1595.08	Champion	102.1	0.1	60.4%
6	Mike	MR ASS + MA HOMIES	7-6	1467.96	1482.58	Playoffs (eliminated)	94.1	2.1	0.0%
7	Nate	Wanna be a Waller	6-7	1562.82	1596.94	Missed Playoffs	100.1	-0.3	7.3%
8	Joe	Gus the Slow Bus Edwards	6-7	1552.30	1584.08	Mundane Randy	99.5	-0.6	0.5%
9	Vinny	THE Tight End University	5-8	1549.32	1704.08	Missed Playoffs	99.3	-1.7	1.6%
10	Chester	Team Lomanto	4-9	1538.46	1602.86	Missed Playoffs	98.6	-2.3	0.0%
11	Pookie	Team FuckJackslife	4-9	1527.22	1571.30	Missed Playoffs	97.9	-2.3	0.3%
12	Jack	WWAD WWAD McShuster	4-9	1461.58	1576.86	Missed Playoffs	93.7	-0.7	2.7%

Advanced standings

Owner	All-Play	xWins	Luck	Lineup Eff	Boom	Bust	Expected Seed	Seed Luck	Vs. Proj.
Randy	69.2%	9.0	1.0	86.3%	46.2%	0.0%	1.6	0.6	+83.4
Marco	60.8%	7.9	1.1	90.1%	23.1%	7.7%	3.3	1.3	+95.2
Matt	48.3%	6.3	1.7	87.1%	23.1%	23.1%	7.4	4.4	-53.1
Pat	46.9%	6.1	1.9	92.2%	0.0%	15.4%	7.8	3.8	-26.9
Shaun	53.1%	6.9	0.1	87.6%	30.8%	30.8%	4.9	-0.1	+17.8
Mike	37.8%	4.9	2.1	85.3%	15.4%	30.8%	10.1	4.1	-96.6
Nate	48.3%	6.3	-0.3	85.6%	15.4%	7.7%	6.5	-0.5	-77.4
Joe	50.7%	6.6	-0.6	86.3%	7.7%	23.1%	6.0	-2.0	-20.3
Vinny	51.7%	6.7	-1.7	86.4%	15.4%	23.1%	5.9	-3.1	+9.1
Chester	48.6%	6.3	-2.3	88.9%	15.4%	15.4%	6.9	-3.1	+6.5
Pookie	48.3%	6.3	-2.3	83.5%	7.7%	7.7%	7.1	-3.9	+27.0
Jack	36.4%	4.7	-0.7	83.5%	0.0%	23.1%	10.4	-1.6	-99.8

Where the wins came from

Owner	Wins +/-	Draft	Waivers	Trades	Lineup	Luck	Other
Randy	+3.5	+1.1	+0.1	+2.7	-0.6	+1.0	-0.8
Marco	+2.5	+0.2	-0.1	-0.6	+0.5	+1.1	+1.3
Matt	+1.5	-2.6	+2.3	-0.1	+0.1	+1.7	+0.1
Pat	+1.5	-1.6	+0.0	-0.5	+1.4	+1.9	+0.3
Mike	+0.5	-0.2	-0.9	-0.5	-0.2	+2.1	+0.2
Shaun	+0.5	+0.6	+0.3	-0.4	+0.1	+0.1	-0.2
Joe	-0.5	-0.2	-0.3	+0.7	-0.1	-0.6	+0.0
Nate	-0.5	+2.2	-1.0	-0.6	-0.3	-0.3	-0.5
Vinny	-1.5	-0.9	-0.1	+1.2	-0.1	-1.7	+0.2
Chester	-2.5	-0.5	+0.0	-0.6	+0.6	-2.3	+0.3
Jack	-2.5	+0.2	+0.1	-0.6	-0.6	-0.7	-0.8
Pookie	-2.5	+1.7	-0.5	-0.6	-0.8	-2.3	-0.0

In wins. See Where Wins Come From.

Biggest Upsets

Wk	Winner	Pregame	Score	Loser
8	Pat	20%	119.34–107.52	Joe
13	Pat	23%	139.12–139.02	Marco
8	Marco	31%	112.86–99.82	Shaun
6	Marco	32%	117.74–90.78	Randy
12	Pookie	34%	155.72–93.50	Pat

Playoffs

Quarterfinals

Bye

Bye

Semifinals

Final

Losers Bracket

Seeds 7–12 play a reverse-elimination bracket: losing advances a team toward the Consolation Final, whose loser becomes Mundane Randy.

Round 1

7Nate158.34

10Chester112.28advances ↓

Placement game, no bracket meaning

Round 2

10Chester145.16

11Pookie108.82advances ↓

Filler, already escaped

Consolation Final

Filler, already escaped

7Nate117.52

12Jack124.78

Filler, already escaped

Placement Games

Games among eliminated playoff teams determine third through sixth place.

Round 2

Final

The Race

Odds after every week, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Seed	Owner	Pre	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Rd 1	Semis	Finish
1	Randy	51	38	53	73	81	87	75	87	96	>99	100	100	100	100	100	100	8	6	9	14	17	18	13	16	21	28	32	32	35	35	35	0	8	11	7	3	3	2	3	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
2	Marco	50	37	24	33	49	37	45	59	71	91	99	100	100	100	100	100	8	6	3	5	7	5	6	8	11	14	17	19	25	27	26	51	8	11	15	12	8	10	8	5	4	1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	Runner-Up
3	Matt	51	57	73	82	72	54	70	81	67	85	96	100	100	100	100	100	8	9	13	16	12	7	11	12	9	12	13	16	11	10	0	0	8	7	4	2	4	8	4	2	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
4	Pat	50	60	66	75	62	59	63	72	85	96	97	98	92	100	100	100	8	9	10	12	9	8	8	10	13	13	12	9	8	8	0	0	9	6	5	4	7	7	6	4	2	1	<1	<1	1	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
5	Shaun	51	66	73	57	75	86	95	89	80	91	90	90	62	100	100	100	9	12	13	9	14	16	23	18	14	14	12	10	6	11	21	49	8	5	4	7	3	2	<1	1	2	1	1	1	5	0	0	0	Champion
6	Mike	48	33	24	18	22	32	47	25	39	22	37	11	44	100	100	100	8	5	3	2	3	4	6	3	5	2	4	1	4	9	17	0	9	13	15	15	14	12	8	12	8	11	9	13	7	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
7	Nate	50	37	32	35	27	46	62	44	54	36	19	9	14	0	0	0	8	5	5	5	4	8	10	7	9	5	2	1	1	0	0	0	8	11	12	11	12	8	4	6	5	7	9	11	9	11	0	0	Missed Playoffs
8	Joe	50	63	47	61	78	89	82	90	81	71	58	90	83	0	0	0	8	11	7	10	14	19	15	18	15	10	7	11	9	0	0	0	8	6	8	6	3	1	2	1	2	3	5	1	2	12	23	49	Mundane Randy
9	Vinny	51	64	46	31	19	12	3	1	<1	<1	1	2	4	0	0	0	9	12	7	4	2	1	<1	<1	<1	0	<1	<1	1	0	0	0	8	5	9	13	17	18	24	25	26	22	19	15	12	12	0	0	Missed Playoffs
10	Chester	49	62	80	71	63	44	29	40	20	7	2	0	0	0	0	0	8	11	17	13	11	7	4	6	3	1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	9	5	3	4	5	8	10	7	11	13	15	16	25	12	24	0	Missed Playoffs
11	Pookie	49	38	26	14	20	32	19	9	3	<1	1	0	0	0	0	0	8	6	4	2	2	4	2	1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	8	11	13	18	15	12	14	16	18	21	17	20	13	25	25	51	Missed Playoffs
12	Jack	50	44	56	50	32	24	10	3	4	1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	8	8	10	9	5	3	1	<1	1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	9	6	7	10	12	16	19	17	19	24	22	27	28	28	0	Missed Playoffs

Each week’s odds come from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, with team strength set by scoring to date and weighted toward the league average until the sample grows. Backtested on every week since 2013: teams given 70–80% made the playoffs 74% of the time.

Week-by-Week Results

Wk	Randy	Marco	Matt	Pat	Shaun	Mike	Nate	Joe	Vinny	Chester	Pookie	Jack
1	L112.28	L109.66	W115.70	W128.20	W156.50	L94.04	L106.78	W140.64	W147.40	W140.90	L113.52	L138.00
2	W156.80	L99.98	W163.42	W117.24	W119.16	L117.18	L140.42	L99.60	L90.18	W170.28	L110.14	W143.06
3	W170.64	W139.18	W130.82	W114.10	L91.18	L137.20	W114.00	W138.18	L97.22	L118.18	L95.48	L137.60
4	W123.62	W156.28	L105.10	L104.62	W166.82	W116.48	L129.90	W165.18	L108.54	L122.60	W130.90	L94.74
5	W108.22	L98.18	L64.04	L137.80	W123.50	W120.60	W157.80	W140.44	L115.30	L81.30	W133.96	L119.62
6	L90.78	W117.74	W156.54	W83.42	W166.14	W147.32	W144.94	L102.82	L71.42	L106.14	L105.08	L83.62
7	W134.78	W137.82	W125.32	W127.20	L94.34	L82.70	L110.62	W138.62	L115.08	W138.62	L118.56	L107.44
8	W153.32	W112.86	L88.54	W119.34	L99.82	W138.14	W112.34	L107.52	L130.90	L93.36	L115.98	W110.58
9	W182.10	W143.56	W127.86	W99.42	W99.50	L94.08	L101.50	L96.90	W118.98	L95.46	L98.74	L98.34
10	W145.76	W115.24	W98.28	L126.80	L126.76	W95.10	L82.72	L80.72	W135.92	L95.82	W120.32	L94.44
11	W137.52	W125.86	W149.44	L100.66	L92.04	L78.62	L119.28	W142.40	W132.68	L124.10	L119.88	W112.64
12	W183.38	W164.20	L103.64	L93.50	L87.62	W155.78	W113.10	L111.18	W129.50	L81.76	W155.72	L98.02
13	L106.10	L139.02	L88.96	W139.12	W170.68	W90.72	W129.42	L88.10	L156.20	W169.94	L108.94	W123.48
14	BYE	BYE	L100.72	L137.36	W157.12	W108.42	W158.34	L81.96	W88.80	L112.28	L131.36	W156.78
15	L113.56	W122.90	L125.56	W142.74	W141.12	L99.36	L116.24	L113.22	W117.94	W145.16	L108.82	W150.62
16	W149.90	L143.32	W119.92	L106.18	W159.72	L111.92	L117.52	L134.30	W115.44	L86.96	W174.26	W124.78