Seed	Owner	Team	Record	PF	PA	Finish	PF+	Luck	Alt. Title Rate
1	Nate	Winner Winner Chicken Dinner	10-3	1876.60	1576.36	Champion	116.3	0.1	94.8%
2	Matt	Stafford and Scrubs	10-3	1828.16	1631.20	Runner-Up	113.3	1.1	4.8%
3	Shaun	OJs Khunt	10-3	1749.36	1506.34	Playoffs (eliminated)	108.4	1.4	0.0%
4	Chester	Team Lomanto	10-3	1686.18	1535.26	Playoffs (eliminated)	104.5	2.7	<0.1%
5	Joe	Dietz n Watson PhillyCheezTate	7-6	1739.06	1612.16	Playoffs (eliminated)	107.8	-0.7	0.0%
6	Jack	Peace Stupid Pedro	6-7	1674.84	1740.30	Playoffs (eliminated)	103.8	-1.5	0.3%
7	Pat	Are you Fkn McKinnon Me?	6-7	1639.96	1669.02	Missed Playoffs	101.6	-0.6	<0.1%
8	Pookie	Gesicki On Yer Face	5-8	1566.68	1612.70	Missed Playoffs	97.1	-0.7	<0.1%
9	Vinny	Shake and Baker	5-8	1439.06	1624.88	Mundane Randy	89.2	0.5	0.0%
10	Randy	(Alleged) Abusers	4-9	1424.20	1647.84	Missed Playoffs	88.3	-0.6	<0.1%
11	Marco	Fern Gully	3-10	1397.64	1505.18	Missed Playoffs	86.6	-0.4	0.0%
12	Mike	2018 Ass ass ins	2-11	1342.94	1703.44	Missed Playoffs	83.2	-1.2	0.0%

Advanced standings

Owner	All-Play	xWins	Luck	Lineup Eff	Boom	Bust	Expected Seed	Seed Luck	Vs. Proj.
Nate	76.2%	9.9	0.1	88.3%	46.2%	7.7%	1.6	0.6	+153.9
Matt	68.5%	8.9	1.1	89.9%	30.8%	0.0%	2.8	0.8	+114.3
Shaun	66.4%	8.6	1.4	88.8%	30.8%	15.4%	3.2	0.2	+154.6
Chester	55.9%	7.3	2.7	88.8%	15.4%	0.0%	5.4	1.4	+129.1
Joe	59.4%	7.7	-0.7	86.3%	38.5%	7.7%	4.6	-0.4	+72.6
Jack	57.3%	7.5	-1.5	82.9%	15.4%	7.7%	5.3	-0.7	-3.8
Pat	51.0%	6.6	-0.6	86.3%	15.4%	7.7%	6.5	-0.5	+61.6
Pookie	44.1%	5.7	-0.7	88.8%	7.7%	23.1%	7.8	-0.2	+87.3
Vinny	35.0%	4.5	0.5	89.5%	0.0%	23.1%	9.3	0.3	+26.9
Randy	35.7%	4.6	-0.6	88.0%	7.7%	38.5%	9.4	-0.6	-107.0
Marco	25.9%	3.4	-0.4	85.9%	0.0%	30.8%	10.8	-0.2	-82.8
Mike	24.5%	3.2	-1.2	86.6%	0.0%	46.2%	11.2	-0.8	-2.2

Where the wins came from

Owner	Wins +/-	Draft	Waivers	Trades	Lineup	Luck	Other
Chester	+3.5	+1.3	-0.1	-0.5	+0.2	+2.7	-0.2
Matt	+3.5	-2.0	+2.6	+1.4	+0.3	+1.1	+0.1
Nate	+3.5	+5.3	-1.4	-0.5	-0.2	+0.1	+0.1
Shaun	+3.5	+1.3	+0.8	-0.5	+0.1	+1.4	+0.4
Joe	+0.5	+2.0	+0.1	+0.1	-0.6	-0.7	-0.3
Jack	-0.5	+1.0	-0.2	+1.4	-1.4	-1.5	+0.2
Pat	-0.5	+0.4	+0.8	-0.5	-0.4	-0.6	-0.2
Pookie	-1.5	-3.3	+1.3	+1.0	+0.4	-0.7	-0.2
Vinny	-1.5	-0.9	-1.5	-0.5	+0.8	+0.5	+0.1
Randy	-2.5	-0.8	-1.5	-0.5	+0.5	-0.6	+0.5
Marco	-3.5	-1.7	-0.6	-0.5	+0.0	-0.4	-0.4
Mike	-4.5	-2.7	-0.4	-0.5	+0.3	-1.2	+0.0

In wins. See Where Wins Come From.

Biggest Upsets

Wk	Winner	Pregame	Score	Loser
3	Vinny	20%	135.90–132.74	Matt
12	Chester	22%	171.82–122.72	Jack
14	Chester	25%	120.58–92.58	Joe
10	Randy	26%	165.20–129.90	Jack
3	Mike	30%	96.22–84.44	Pat

Playoffs

Quarterfinals

Bye

Bye

Semifinals

Final

Losers Bracket

Seeds 7–12 play a reverse-elimination bracket: losing advances a team toward the Consolation Final, whose loser becomes Mundane Randy.

Round 1

7Pat110.60

10Randy96.44advances ↓

8Pookie142.68

9Vinny93.74advances ↓

11Marco116.08

12Mike71.70

Placement game, no bracket meaning

Round 2

10Randy142.62

11Marco110.98advances ↓

9Vinny71.46advances ↓

12Mike94.62

7Pat100.26

8Pookie93.60

Filler, already escaped

Consolation Final

Filler, already escaped

8Pookie109.00

12Mike102.74

Filler, already escaped

Placement Games

Games among eliminated playoff teams determine third through sixth place.

Round 2

Final

The Race

Odds after every week, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Seed	Owner	Pre	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Rd 1	Semis	Finish
1	Nate	51	61	75	84	80	92	89	97	>99	98	>99	100	100	100	100	100	9	10	14	17	14	21	20	23	25	19	22	19	24	30	32	52	9	6	3	2	2	1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	Champion
2	Matt	49	70	79	75	63	70	83	96	99	98	>99	100	100	100	100	100	8	14	16	15	11	12	15	20	20	18	23	24	22	27	28	48	9	4	3	3	4	3	2	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	Runner-Up
3	Shaun	50	30	44	59	71	81	92	98	>99	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	9	4	6	9	11	13	17	20	20	27	21	23	23	13	0	0	8	14	10	6	4	2	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
4	Chester	50	63	51	64	74	81	72	90	95	97	96	100	100	100	100	100	8	12	8	11	12	12	10	13	12	13	11	11	11	10	20	0	8	6	8	5	4	3	4	1	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
5	Joe	50	48	60	74	86	78	63	55	77	61	82	97	98	100	100	100	8	8	11	15	20	16	11	7	10	9	11	13	11	11	0	0	8	8	5	3	1	2	4	5	2	3	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
6	Jack	49	33	42	27	23	35	25	38	29	46	27	59	36	100	100	100	8	5	6	3	3	5	3	4	3	5	3	6	3	10	20	0	8	13	10	14	13	9	12	8	8	4	6	3	5	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
7	Pat	51	56	54	36	50	37	49	45	34	37	56	29	66	0	0	0	8	9	10	5	7	5	7	6	4	4	6	3	6	0	0	0	8	7	7	10	7	9	7	7	7	5	4	6	3	8	0	0	Missed Playoffs
8	Pookie	50	41	54	46	53	43	27	15	6	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	8	6	9	7	8	6	4	2	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	9	10	7	8	6	7	10	13	15	13	15	14	11	9	0	0	Missed Playoffs
9	Vinny	50	60	47	59	48	36	48	37	48	56	34	14	0	0	0	0	9	10	7	9	7	5	6	4	5	5	3	1	0	0	0	0	8	6	9	6	8	9	7	8	6	5	7	10	12	13	23	49	Mundane Randy
10	Randy	50	59	47	34	17	24	36	18	10	2	4	1	0	0	0	0	9	10	7	5	2	3	4	2	1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	9	7	9	11	16	14	11	15	16	18	14	13	13	14	24	0	Missed Playoffs
11	Marco	50	38	21	14	7	3	5	6	2	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	8	5	2	2	1	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	8	11	16	18	21	23	22	20	23	25	23	25	28	27	25	51	Missed Playoffs
12	Mike	50	42	26	28	30	19	11	5	2	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	7	4	3	3	2	1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	9	13	13	14	16	19	22	22	25	30	28	29	30	28	0	Missed Playoffs

Each week’s odds come from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, with team strength set by scoring to date and weighted toward the league average until the sample grows. Backtested on every week since 2013: teams given 70–80% made the playoffs 74% of the time.

Week-by-Week Results

Wk	Nate	Matt	Shaun	Chester	Joe	Jack	Pat	Pookie	Vinny	Randy	Marco	Mike
1	W131.42	W175.34	L75.84	W141.64	L151.84	L90.42	W115.56	L123.70	W125.64	W127.26	L109.72	L129.38
2	W162.26	W137.38	W158.90	L122.84	W145.30	W128.76	L161.90	W146.98	L111.74	L113.18	L88.04	L93.46
3	W135.00	L132.74	W141.10	W131.26	W150.50	L97.56	L84.44	L129.82	W135.90	L109.30	L119.18	W96.22
4	L140.20	L129.08	W144.60	W132.06	W176.10	L159.38	W163.00	W132.26	L126.22	L87.58	L118.88	W99.16
5	W168.30	W109.42	W123.98	W105.30	L100.40	W144.80	L112.04	L117.40	L117.88	W126.60	L103.52	L121.04
6	L136.66	W138.60	W147.20	L115.58	L103.60	L117.06	W118.94	L105.26	W138.20	W139.02	W125.38	L111.40
7	W159.52	W163.90	W154.76	W146.32	L115.06	W123.72	L139.88	L86.62	L103.10	L59.08	W82.26	L83.98
8	W150.34	W138.94	W152.36	W121.62	W155.28	L124.56	L120.06	L93.90	W115.34	L105.90	L95.02	L114.16
9	L82.36	L131.90	W180.98	W105.70	L175.62	W179.86	W122.64	W90.60	W104.86	L87.74	L89.70	L76.76
10	W152.02	W173.90	L90.52	L127.86	W116.10	L129.90	W133.12	L129.82	L96.66	W165.20	W124.58	L92.42
11	W128.64	W166.14	W142.38	W144.92	W134.12	W133.58	L101.72	L117.06	L84.18	L117.52	L105.90	L119.04
12	W179.64	W115.68	W132.54	W171.82	L80.78	L122.72	W150.78	W160.98	L106.72	L102.84	L113.46	L111.46
13	W150.24	W115.14	L104.20	W119.26	W134.36	W122.52	L115.88	W132.28	L72.62	L82.98	L122.00	L94.46
14	BYE	BYE	L108.60	W120.58	L92.58	W163.36	W110.60	W142.68	L93.74	L96.44	W116.08	L71.70
15	W117.58	W104.14	L86.04	L91.02	W111.26	L95.78	W100.26	L93.60	L71.46	W142.62	L110.98	W94.62
16	W187.14	L172.26	W114.74	L79.92	L16.80	W129.00	L79.44	W109.00	L129.98	W154.34	W138.32	L102.74