Seed	Owner	Team	Record	PF	PA	Finish	PF+	Luck	Alt. Title Rate
1	Joe	Absolute Zero Kelvin	11-2	1633.88	1446.18	Playoffs (eliminated)	112.4	1.5	21.4%
2	Chester	Team Lomanto	10-3	1823.30	1351.62	Playoffs (eliminated)	125.5	-0.8	12.2%
3	Randy	(Alleged) Abusers	7-6	1700.80	1486.36	Champion	117.0	-2.5	66.3%
4	Jack	The Bullcock Is Back	7-6	1518.44	1456.30	Runner-Up	104.5	-0.5	0.0%
5	Mike	2016 A. Luck-y ASS	7-6	1458.82	1472.36	Playoffs (eliminated)	100.4	0.4	0.0%
6	Pat	I Think I Wanna Amari You	7-6	1434.40	1444.28	Playoffs (eliminated)	98.7	0.5	0.2%
7	Marco	Krajcir-Watts Talent Agency	7-6	1388.98	1380.14	Missed Playoffs	95.6	1.6	0.0%
8	Shaun	Jack's Gay	5-8	1429.16	1444.46	Missed Playoffs	98.3	-1.5	0.0%
9	Matt	The Rim Schaubs	5-8	1409.60	1607.00	Missed Playoffs	97.0	-1.2	0.0%
10	Vinny	Pierce my Cotchery	5-8	1194.10	1399.92	Mundane Randy	82.2	1.9	0.0%
11	Nate	the giants .	4-9	1250.20	1478.60	Missed Playoffs	86.0	0.3	0.0%
12	Brent	Toms Gold Balls Gronks Kumquat	3-10	1198.68	1473.14	Missed Playoffs	82.5	0.4	0.0%

Advanced standings

Owner	All-Play	xWins	Luck	Lineup Eff	Boom	Bust	Expected Seed	Seed Luck
Joe	73.4%	9.5	1.5	—	38.5%	0.0%	2.7	1.7
Chester	83.2%	10.8	-0.8	—	61.5%	0.0%	1.4	-0.6
Randy	73.4%	9.5	-2.5	—	38.5%	0.0%	2.5	-0.5
Jack	58.0%	7.5	-0.5	—	23.1%	0.0%	4.8	0.8
Mike	51.0%	6.6	0.4	—	15.4%	15.4%	6.0	1.0
Pat	49.7%	6.5	0.5	—	15.4%	30.8%	6.4	0.4
Marco	41.3%	5.4	1.6	—	7.7%	7.7%	8.2	1.2
Shaun	49.7%	6.5	-1.5	—	15.4%	15.4%	6.6	-1.4
Matt	47.6%	6.2	-1.2	—	7.7%	15.4%	7.1	-1.9
Vinny	23.8%	3.1	1.9	—	0.0%	46.2%	11.1	1.1
Nate	28.7%	3.7	0.3	—	7.7%	38.5%	10.1	-0.9
Brent	20.3%	2.6	0.4	—	0.0%	53.8%	11.3	-0.7

Playoffs

Quarterfinals

2Chester

Bye

3Randy159.64

6Pat146.14

1Joe

Bye

Semifinals

Final

Losers Bracket

Seeds 7–12 play a reverse-elimination bracket: losing advances a team toward the Consolation Final, whose loser becomes Mundane Randy.

Round 1

9Matt136.44

8Shaun117.66advances ↓

10Vinny77.02advances ↓

7Marco81.12

11Nate97.38

12Brent107.54

Placement game, no bracket meaning

Round 2

12Brent104.74

8Shaun101.38advances ↓

11Nate127.78

10Vinny87.94advances ↓

7Marco117.92

9Matt104.04

Filler, already escaped

Consolation Final

Filler, already escaped

12Brent77.86

9Matt113.04

Filler, already escaped

Placement Games

Games among eliminated playoff teams determine third through sixth place.

Round 2

Final

The Race

Odds after every week, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Seed	Owner	Pre	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Rd 1	Semis	Finish
1	Joe	50	36	49	68	82	91	97	99	>99	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	8	6	8	11	15	17	21	20	21	23	25	26	26	25	25	0	9	11	8	4	2	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
2	Chester	50	69	79	79	89	96	98	>99	>99	99	>99	100	100	100	100	100	9	13	16	17	20	25	26	30	28	25	29	33	35	35	33	0	8	4	3	2	1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
3	Randy	50	69	63	76	90	83	79	89	93	89	76	92	75	100	100	100	8	14	11	15	22	17	15	18	20	20	14	16	12	16	25	58	8	4	5	2	1	1	2	1	<1	<1	1	<1	1	0	0	0	Champion
4	Jack	50	46	53	48	32	43	60	50	31	42	57	50	63	100	100	100	8	7	8	8	4	6	7	6	3	4	6	4	6	10	18	42	9	8	7	7	10	7	4	5	7	5	4	3	3	0	0	0	Runner-Up
5	Mike	50	58	50	61	45	31	21	34	46	76	86	63	97	100	100	100	9	9	7	9	6	4	2	3	4	8	10	5	8	9	0	0	8	7	8	6	8	10	11	8	6	2	1	3	<1	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
6	Pat	50	66	77	77	66	79	66	87	78	57	38	65	80	100	100	100	8	13	16	13	8	11	7	10	8	5	3	5	6	6	0	0	8	5	3	3	5	3	4	1	2	4	6	4	1	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
7	Marco	50	30	21	24	34	26	39	29	36	20	36	60	86	0	0	0	8	4	2	3	4	2	4	2	3	2	3	4	6	0	0	0	9	14	15	14	11	13	9	10	8	11	7	4	1	9	0	0	Missed Playoffs
8	Shaun	49	55	65	55	42	33	22	17	24	41	60	43	0	0	0	0	8	9	11	7	5	3	2	2	2	4	6	4	0	0	0	0	8	7	6	7	10	11	12	12	9	6	3	5	9	9	17	40	Missed Playoffs
9	Matt	50	62	54	62	60	75	83	69	84	70	46	28	0	0	0	0	9	11	9	10	10	12	14	7	10	7	4	2	0	0	0	0	8	6	6	5	5	3	2	3	1	3	5	6	9	9	0	0	Missed Playoffs
10	Vinny	49	37	43	25	33	20	26	18	8	2	<1	0	0	0	0	0	8	5	6	3	3	2	2	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	11	10	14	13	16	14	15	18	24	27	29	23	17	28	60	Mundane Randy
11	Nate	50	37	22	9	19	10	4	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	5	3	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	11	15	20	15	18	20	25	26	27	27	21	26	26	25	0	Missed Playoffs
12	Brent	51	34	23	15	8	13	5	7	2	4	<1	0	0	0	0	0	8	5	3	2	1	1	<1	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	12	15	16	20	17	21	20	22	18	20	24	26	30	30	0	Missed Playoffs

Each week’s odds come from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, with team strength set by scoring to date and weighted toward the league average until the sample grows. Backtested on every week since 2013: teams given 70–80% made the playoffs 74% of the time.

Week-by-Week Results

Wk	Joe	Chester	Randy	Jack	Mike	Pat	Marco	Shaun	Matt	Vinny	Nate	Brent
1	L93.78	W147.40	W154.62	L121.74	W107.74	W137.14	L65.88	W98.12	W122.64	L90.08	L93.54	L81.74
2	W124.08	W129.86	L119.82	W109.76	L114.58	W127.40	L106.98	W117.92	L116.22	W108.50	L84.02	L103.34
3	W160.06	L158.10	W142.50	L141.92	W129.36	W86.64	W106.62	L112.42	W122.42	L83.82	L79.28	L117.10
4	W132.26	W134.48	W158.00	L86.08	L78.88	L82.18	W104.88	L81.48	L128.96	W95.24	W135.32	L79.32
5	W115.46	W145.42	L101.72	W112.86	L93.34	W121.46	L102.42	L108.54	W126.04	L84.72	L89.00	W111.06
6	W141.78	W119.40	L138.28	W141.10	L113.62	L80.38	W130.88	L102.24	W114.12	W90.44	L99.86	L77.04
7	W93.50	W153.52	W134.96	L95.32	W113.02	W151.02	L92.16	L132.16	L62.98	L103.50	L72.34	W92.94
8	W115.72	L114.82	W136.48	L105.40	W123.46	L112.84	W117.32	W121.12	W146.78	L88.82	L77.36	L98.96
9	W115.24	L112.18	L148.88	W109.72	W154.12	L75.66	L92.30	W136.66	L78.30	L74.30	W100.48	W119.12
10	W146.46	W107.98	L90.62	W108.78	W105.90	L97.16	W141.14	W120.04	L84.98	L76.00	L111.16	L73.16
11	W144.56	W183.48	W130.82	L140.20	L76.90	W122.62	W110.50	L102.40	L118.22	L73.78	W102.00	L72.30
12	L121.30	W157.92	L115.72	W143.56	W141.48	W138.88	W122.98	L83.56	L99.44	W102.76	L87.12	L90.74
13	W129.68	W158.74	W128.38	W102.00	L106.42	L101.02	L94.92	L112.50	L88.50	W122.14	W118.72	L81.86
14	BYE	BYE	W159.64	W141.66	L108.14	L146.14	W81.12	L117.66	W136.44	L77.02	L97.38	W107.54
15	L133.50	L123.34	W147.38	W137.04	L103.18	W131.68	W117.92	L101.38	L104.04	L87.94	W127.78	W104.74
16	L130.96	W169.06	W123.02	L97.46	L88.02	W106.32	W99.46	W82.24	W113.04	L64.56	L82.40	L77.86