Seed	Owner	Team	Record	PF	PA	Finish	PF+	Luck	Alt. Title Rate
1	Matt	Stupid	9-4	1844.60	1575.74	Champion	118.4	-0.7	67.3%
2	Pookie	Team FuckJackslife	9-4	1626.50	1526.92	Playoffs (eliminated)	104.4	1.3	19.7%
3	Mike	2018 Ass ass ins	9-4	1595.24	1524.44	Playoffs (eliminated)	102.4	2.3	0.0%
4	Pat	I Goedert In My Gurley Parts	9-4	1591.36	1430.30	Playoffs (eliminated)	102.1	2.0	0.4%
5	Shaun	OJ’s Posse Of Murderous Cucks	7-6	1481.10	1570.86	Playoffs (eliminated)	95.1	1.0	0.2%
6	Jack	Homeschool Dak	6-7	1677.18	1596.12	Runner-Up	107.6	-1.9	2.5%
7	Chester	Team Lomanto	6-7	1583.70	1495.54	Mundane Randy	101.6	-0.2	0.0%
8	Vinny	Make America Gronk Again	6-7	1580.50	1554.38	Missed Playoffs	101.4	-0.8	2.1%
9	Randy	(Alleged) Abusers	5-8	1578.64	1605.48	Missed Playoffs	101.3	-2.0	0.0%
10	Joe	AChristian+aJu JuWalkintoaBar	5-8	1510.66	1550.00	Missed Playoffs	97.0	-1.3	7.8%
11	Nate	We wish you Amari Christmas	4-9	1361.62	1681.34	Missed Playoffs	87.4	0.1	0.0%
12	Marco	Geronimo Stilton ©	3-10	1264.88	1584.86	Missed Playoffs	81.2	0.2	0.0%

Advanced standings

Owner	All-Play	xWins	Luck	Lineup Eff	Boom	Bust	Expected Seed	Seed Luck	Vs. Proj.
Matt	74.8%	9.7	-0.7	87.9%	46.2%	0.0%	1.4	0.4	+160.5
Pookie	59.4%	7.7	1.3	84.9%	23.1%	7.7%	4.0	2.0	+40.1
Mike	51.7%	6.7	2.3	89.6%	15.4%	0.0%	5.8	2.8	+71.5
Pat	53.5%	7.0	2.0	88.0%	23.1%	15.4%	5.6	1.6	-16.6
Shaun	45.8%	6.0	1.0	86.1%	7.7%	23.1%	8.1	3.1	-67.8
Jack	60.8%	7.9	-1.9	80.7%	30.8%	0.0%	3.7	-2.3	-40.6
Chester	47.6%	6.2	-0.2	86.4%	15.4%	15.4%	7.1	0.1	+1.9
Vinny	52.4%	6.8	-0.8	90.7%	30.8%	15.4%	6.2	-1.8	+89.3
Randy	53.8%	7.0	-2.0	88.4%	7.7%	23.1%	6.1	-2.9	+37.8
Joe	48.3%	6.3	-1.3	85.0%	0.0%	7.7%	7.4	-2.6	-55.3
Nate	30.1%	3.9	0.1	83.0%	7.7%	23.1%	10.7	-0.3	-99.9
Marco	21.7%	2.8	0.2	83.2%	0.0%	46.2%	11.7	-0.3	-150.7

Where the wins came from

Owner	Wins +/-	Draft	Waivers	Trades	Lineup	Luck	Other
Matt	+2.5	-2.1	+2.6	+3.2	-0.0	-0.7	-0.4
Mike	+2.5	+0.2	-0.1	-0.4	+0.8	+2.3	-0.3
Pat	+2.5	+1.1	-0.8	-0.4	+0.4	+2.0	+0.2
Pookie	+2.5	+2.0	-0.1	-0.4	-0.5	+1.3	+0.2
Shaun	+0.5	-0.7	-0.5	+0.1	+0.1	+1.0	+0.3
Chester	-0.5	+1.4	-0.5	-0.4	+0.0	-0.2	-0.8
Jack	-0.5	+2.2	+0.4	-0.3	-1.9	-1.9	+1.0
Vinny	-0.5	+1.4	-1.5	-0.4	+1.1	-0.8	-0.2
Joe	-1.5	+0.3	-0.1	-0.4	-0.2	-1.3	+0.2
Randy	-1.5	-1.7	+1.2	+0.3	+0.6	-2.0	+0.1
Nate	-2.5	-1.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	+0.1	-0.2
Marco	-3.5	-2.7	-0.3	-0.4	-0.1	+0.2	-0.1

In wins. See Where Wins Come From.

Biggest Upsets

Wk	Winner	Pregame	Score	Loser
13	Marco	9%	107.90–94.02	Pat
8	Shaun	20%	103.36–100.08	Marco
4	Mike	23%	109.98–100.80	Shaun
3	Pookie	24%	153.86–150.34	Jack
10	Pookie	24%	116.20–93.24	Shaun

Playoffs

Quarterfinals

Bye

Bye

Semifinals

Final

Losers Bracket

Seeds 7–12 play a reverse-elimination bracket: losing advances a team toward the Consolation Final, whose loser becomes Mundane Randy.

Round 1

9Randy167.24

8Vinny143.58advances ↓

10Joe114.74

7Chester85.80advances ↓

11Nate76.60

12Marco149.50

Placement game, no bracket meaning

Round 2

8Vinny123.22

12Marco115.04advances ↓

7Chester92.94advances ↓

11Nate94.72

9Randy168.02

10Joe156.36

Filler, already escaped

Consolation Final

7Chester132.26

12Marco169.36

Mundane Randy: Chester

8Vinny133.06

9Randy91.30

Filler, already escaped

10Joe134.92

11Nate85.74

Filler, already escaped

Placement Games

Games among eliminated playoff teams determine third through sixth place.

Round 2

Final

The Race

Odds after every week, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Seed	Owner	Pre	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Rd 1	Semis	Finish
1	Matt	50	36	48	66	85	91	90	97	94	98	100	100	100	100	100	100	8	6	8	12	19	20	22	28	25	27	30	24	30	35	34	57	8	11	9	4	2	1	1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	Champion
2	Pookie	49	64	41	58	42	61	45	42	54	76	90	>99	100	100	100	100	9	11	6	10	6	9	6	5	7	11	12	14	14	23	22	0	9	6	10	7	10	6	9	8	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
3	Mike	50	42	29	37	46	30	51	65	84	95	99	100	100	100	100	100	8	7	4	5	7	4	7	9	14	15	16	20	14	10	0	0	8	9	12	11	9	12	7	5	2	1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
4	Pat	50	58	66	67	79	90	96	>99	>99	>99	100	100	100	100	100	100	8	9	11	9	12	15	17	19	18	17	16	20	21	11	19	0	8	7	6	6	4	1	1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
5	Shaun	51	68	55	68	53	68	80	65	72	51	35	60	100	100	100	100	9	13	10	12	9	12	14	9	9	5	3	5	8	7	0	0	8	4	7	4	7	4	3	5	3	7	11	5	0	0	0	0	Playoffs (eliminated)
6	Jack	50	60	76	72	60	77	65	54	41	55	42	24	50	100	100	100	8	10	15	15	10	15	11	9	7	8	6	3	6	13	25	43	9	7	3	4	5	3	4	5	6	3	5	7	4	0	0	0	Runner-Up
7	Chester	50	33	26	17	10	12	6	13	3	6	18	3	<1	0	0	0	8	4	3	2	1	2	1	1	<1	1	2	<1	<1	0	0	0	8	12	14	16	19	18	20	17	20	16	11	13	9	9	18	37	Mundane Randy
8	Vinny	49	62	61	37	28	15	30	48	63	78	63	41	48	0	0	0	8	11	11	6	4	2	4	7	10	12	8	5	5	0	0	0	9	6	5	11	12	15	10	6	4	2	4	6	4	9	17	0	Missed Playoffs
9	Randy	51	49	62	44	56	43	26	40	27	13	27	47	2	0	0	0	9	9	12	7	9	6	3	5	3	2	4	5	<1	0	0	0	8	8	5	8	6	8	11	8	9	12	8	5	8	9	0	0	Missed Playoffs
10	Joe	51	38	49	43	32	23	31	17	27	7	17	25	0	0	0	0	8	6	7	6	5	3	5	2	3	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	8	11	9	8	10	11	10	13	9	14	11	8	11	11	0	0	Missed Playoffs
11	Nate	50	55	63	78	86	79	66	55	33	20	9	<1	0	0	0	0	8	8	10	14	15	12	9	6	3	2	1	<1	0	0	0	0	8	8	6	3	2	3	6	7	11	14	18	22	29	29	30	0	Missed Playoffs
12	Marco	49	36	24	14	22	11	13	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	5	3	2	3	1	1	<1	<1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	12	15	18	14	18	19	26	30	30	32	34	35	34	35	63	Missed Playoffs

Each week’s odds come from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, with team strength set by scoring to date and weighted toward the league average until the sample grows. Backtested on every week since 2013: teams given 70–80% made the playoffs 74% of the time.

Week-by-Week Results

Wk	Matt	Pookie	Mike	Pat	Shaun	Jack	Chester	Vinny	Randy	Joe	Nate	Marco
1	L107.36	W141.52	L119.76	W119.40	W159.02	W127.10	L89.00	W136.82	L149.46	L111.32	W105.82	L98.62
2	W128.08	L70.50	L109.40	W115.50	L108.12	W157.26	L121.80	L148.26	W144.92	W126.42	W116.26	L103.54
3	W175.38	W153.86	W133.26	W87.30	W146.36	L150.34	L129.44	L85.54	L98.50	L152.22	W160.10	L117.76
4	W185.08	L95.36	W109.98	W123.00	L100.80	L106.52	L103.60	L118.70	W128.88	L113.84	W115.70	W137.60
5	W130.44	W167.54	L112.80	W169.24	W151.26	W163.92	W126.72	L108.94	L126.06	L143.12	L118.62	L95.86
6	L160.24	L97.50	W162.84	W112.20	W119.62	L106.02	L107.70	W155.70	L90.30	W121.50	L87.42	W94.84
7	W153.92	L139.32	W106.36	W117.44	L77.14	L117.66	W127.34	W145.42	W128.32	L92.26	L98.96	L45.44
8	L127.12	W135.38	W167.90	W91.58	W103.36	L166.36	L89.28	W153.86	L135.48	W143.06	L91.50	L100.08
9	W155.72	W155.64	W146.08	L131.16	L63.70	W133.38	W146.32	W136.34	L128.10	L63.70	L105.04	L121.26
10	W133.22	W116.20	W105.78	L135.32	L93.24	L100.58	W180.18	L99.88	W147.62	W147.06	L118.02	L95.64
11	L106.68	W117.74	W128.74	W161.74	W122.48	L108.86	L107.02	L88.56	W113.32	W110.44	L98.18	L77.00
12	W153.26	W112.10	L88.04	L133.46	W115.70	W104.98	W149.20	W91.72	L108.42	L91.70	L51.68	L69.34
13	W128.10	W123.84	W104.30	L94.02	L120.30	W134.20	W106.10	L110.76	L79.26	L94.02	L94.32	W107.90
14	BYE	BYE	L99.62	W153.44	L84.02	W131.66	L85.80	L143.58	W167.24	W114.74	L76.60	W149.50
15	W172.78	L136.96	L115.40	L136.64	W125.10	W148.18	L92.94	W123.22	W168.02	L156.36	W94.72	L115.04
16	W110.22	W142.26	L86.92	L103.46	W117.54	L108.50	L132.26	W133.06	L91.30	W134.92	L85.74	W169.36