Pick value
Draft Lab
Draft results compared with replacement-level production and the historical expectation for each pick number.
| Owner | Picks | Avg Value / Slot | Hit Rate | Steals | Busts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester | 250 | +8.9 | 51.6% | 25 | 16 |
| Worm | 97 | +8.3 | 54.6% | 13 | 9 |
| Nate | 194 | +7.8 | 52.1% | 24 | 19 |
| Randy | 160 | +5.0 | 48.8% | 18 | 15 |
| Mike | 198 | +5.0 | 47.5% | 21 | 16 |
| Vose | 136 | +3.4 | 47.8% | 14 | 7 |
| Pat | 297 | +3.3 | 47.1% | 32 | 29 |
| Jack | 304 | +2.1 | 45.1% | 35 | 25 |
| Shaun | 295 | +1.4 | 47.1% | 31 | 34 |
| Vinny | 255 | +0.6 | 50.2% | 21 | 29 |
| Joe | 303 | -0.3 | 42.6% | 31 | 26 |
| Pookie | 158 | -2.6 | 44.3% | 16 | 22 |
| Ian | 90 | -5.4 | 41.1% | 5 | 10 |
| Marco | 300 | -8.7 | 39.0% | 25 | 34 |
| Matt | 301 | -9.6 | 36.5% | 27 | 40 |
| Brent | 122 | -9.7 | 36.9% | 10 | 17 |
| Fat Pat | 16 | +15.3 | 56.3% | 0 | 0 |
Owners with fewer than 30 picks are listed last.
Best Picks Above Slot
| Draft | Owner | Player | Pick | Pts for Drafter | Value / Slot | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Matt | Lamar Jackson | #163 | 415.7 | +299.4 | — |
| 2011 | Pat | Cam Newton | #173 | 314.0 | +250.1 | — |
| 2017 | Marco | Alvin Kamara | #136 | 281.8 | +234.8 | — |
| 2021 | Worm | Cooper Kupp | #37 | 412.9 | +233.5 | — |
| 2015 | Vinny | Cam Newton | #125 | 324.5 | +224.3 | — |
| 2016 | Jack | David Johnson | #5 | 400.4 | +221.3 | — |
| 2019 | Joe | Mark Andrews | #178 | 207.2 | +219.3 | — |
| 2013 | Chester | Peyton Manning | #19 | 412.0 | +216.4 | — |
| 2015 | Vose | Tom Brady | #105 | 346.4 | +216.0 | — |
| 2021 | Randy | Deebo Samuel | #100 | 310.0 | +210.1 | — |
| 2019 | Pookie | Christian McCaffrey | #2 | 448.4 | +209.5 | — |
| 2020 | Mike | Aaron Rodgers | #155 | 357.3 | +208.5 | — |
| 2011 | Mike | Aaron Rodgers | #9 | 397.0 | +206.7 | — |
| 2017 | Chester | Todd Gurley II | #20 | 383.3 | +200.4 | — |
| 2015 | Joe | Devonta Freeman | #73 | 270.2 | +194.7 | — |
| 2014 | Vinny | Russell Wilson | #98 | 307.3 | +193.2 | — |
| 2017 | Pat | Carson Wentz | #159 | 243.0 | +192.9 | — |
| 2023 | Shaun | Kyren Williams | #191 | 255.0 | +190.5 | — |
| 2012 | Pat | Robert Griffin III | #96 | 302.0 | +189.6 | — |
| 2020 | Shaun | Justin Jefferson | #122 | 251.9 | +188.8 | — |
| 2015 | Marco | Eli Manning | #118 | 283.5 | +188.2 | — |
| 2008 | Pat | Aaron Rodgers | #100 | 239.0 | +188.0 | — |
| 2015 | Marco | Allen Robinson | #70 | 288.2 | +187.6 | — |
| 2019 | Jack | Dak Prescott | #189 | 308.2 | +186.8 | — |
| 2014 | Mike | Andrew Luck | #54 | 340.8 | +186.7 | — |
Capture changes by era: 2008–2015 records starter production, 2016–2017 has lineup slots but incomplete bench history, and 2018+ has full rosters. D/ST is excluded from value rankings because every team was required to draft one.