Pick value
Draft Lab
Draft results compared with replacement-level production and the historical expectation for each pick number.
| Owner | Picks | Avg Value / Slot | Hit Rate | Steals | Busts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate | 177 | +9.7 | 52.5% | 24 | 16 |
| Chester | 234 | +8.0 | 50.9% | 23 | 15 |
| Worm | 80 | +7.9 | 53.8% | 11 | 7 |
| Mike | 198 | +5.0 | 48.0% | 19 | 16 |
| Randy | 144 | +4.1 | 47.9% | 17 | 15 |
| Vose | 136 | +3.4 | 47.8% | 13 | 7 |
| Pat | 281 | +2.7 | 46.6% | 30 | 27 |
| Jack | 287 | +2.6 | 45.6% | 32 | 25 |
| Vinny | 239 | +0.9 | 49.8% | 21 | 28 |
| Shaun | 279 | -0.2 | 45.2% | 30 | 31 |
| Joe | 287 | -1.0 | 40.8% | 30 | 24 |
| Pookie | 158 | -2.7 | 44.3% | 15 | 21 |
| Ian | 90 | -5.4 | 40.0% | 4 | 10 |
| Marco | 284 | -9.3 | 38.0% | 25 | 31 |
| Brent | 122 | -9.7 | 36.9% | 10 | 17 |
| Matt | 285 | -10.1 | 36.5% | 25 | 39 |
Best Picks Above Slot
| Draft | Owner | Player | Pick | Pts for Drafter | Value / Slot | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Matt | Lamar Jackson | #163 | 415.7 | +298.3 | — |
| 2011 | Pat | Cam Newton | #173 | 314.0 | +249.9 | — |
| 2017 | Marco | Alvin Kamara | #136 | 281.8 | +234.7 | — |
| 2021 | Worm | Cooper Kupp | #37 | 412.9 | +232.7 | — |
| 2016 | Jack | David Johnson | #5 | 400.4 | +224.5 | — |
| 2015 | Vinny | Cam Newton | #125 | 324.5 | +224.2 | — |
| 2019 | Joe | Mark Andrews | #178 | 207.2 | +218.5 | — |
| 2013 | Chester | Peyton Manning | #19 | 412.0 | +216.3 | — |
| 2015 | Vose | Tom Brady | #105 | 346.4 | +215.9 | — |
| 2021 | Randy | Deebo Samuel | #100 | 310.0 | +208.8 | — |
| 2019 | Pookie | Christian McCaffrey | #2 | 448.4 | +208.6 | — |
| 2020 | Mike | Aaron Rodgers | #155 | 357.3 | +207.7 | — |
| 2011 | Mike | Aaron Rodgers | #9 | 397.0 | +206.5 | — |
| 2017 | Chester | Todd Gurley II | #20 | 383.3 | +200.4 | — |
| 2015 | Joe | Devonta Freeman | #73 | 270.2 | +196.0 | — |
| 2014 | Vinny | Russell Wilson | #98 | 307.3 | +193.0 | — |
| 2017 | Pat | Carson Wentz | #159 | 243.0 | +191.5 | — |
| 2023 | Shaun | Kyren Williams | #191 | 255.0 | +190.9 | — |
| 2012 | Pat | Robert Griffin III | #96 | 302.0 | +189.4 | — |
| 2015 | Marco | Eli Manning | #118 | 283.5 | +188.2 | — |
| 2020 | Shaun | Justin Jefferson | #122 | 251.9 | +188.0 | — |
| 2008 | Pat | Aaron Rodgers | #100 | 239.0 | +187.9 | — |
| 2015 | Marco | Allen Robinson | #70 | 288.2 | +187.6 | — |
| 2019 | Jack | Dak Prescott | #189 | 308.2 | +186.5 | — |
| 2014 | Mike | Andrew Luck | #54 | 340.8 | +186.5 | — |
Capture changes by era: 2008–2015 records starter production, 2016–2017 has lineup slots but incomplete bench history, and 2018+ has full rosters. D/ST is excluded from value rankings because every team was required to draft one.